Fatshimetrie —
On January 20, in Washington, D.C., an unlikely scene looms on the front steps of the U.S. Capitol. As Donald Trump takes the oath of office to preserve, protect, and defend the Constitution on the very site where his supporters rioted four years ago, one extraordinary VIP guest commands all eyes, eclipsing former presidents, military brass, and members of Congress.
It’s Xi Jinping, the unyielding leader of China, the country that nearly everyone at the inaugural ceremony views as an existential threat to America’s dominance as a superpower in what appears to be a 21st-century Cold War.
The idea of such a gathering seems surreal, especially since sources confirmed Thursday that Xi Jinping would not be attending, despite Trump’s surprising invitation to attend a second inauguration that he said could become a landmark global statement.
Convincing Xi Jinping to travel the world would be a considerable feat for the president-elect, but also politically improbable for the Chinese leader. Such a visit would put the Chinese president in the awkward position of paying tribute to Trump and American power, which would run counter to his vision of China as a preeminent global power. At the inauguration, Xi Jinping would find himself listening to Trump without having any control over what the new president says, without even the opportunity to respond. Xi’s presence could also be interpreted as support for a democratic transfer of power, which is unacceptable for an autocrat leading a one-party state obsessed with suppressing individual expression.
Still, Trump’s invitation to Xi Jinping marks a significant development, highlighting the president-elect’s confidence and ambition as he flexes his muscles in preparation for his second term. According to CNN’s Trump team, the president has also canvassed other world leaders to see if they would like to attend the inauguration, breaking with established conventions.
The invitation to Xi Jinping is a reminder of Trump’s commitment to grand gesture diplomacy and his willingness to break diplomatic codes with his unpredictable approach. It also shows that Trump believes in the power of his personality as a key to achieving diplomatic breakthroughs. He is not the only president to take this approach, but it is rarely effective, as America’s hostile adversaries make pragmatic decisions based on national interests rather than sentiment..
Trump’s invitation to Xi is even more surprising because he has recently assembled a very hawkish foreign affairs team toward China, including Marco Rubio as secretary of state and Mike Waltz as national security adviser, both of whom view China as a multidimensional threat to the United States, whether economically, at sea, or even in space.
Lily McElwee, deputy director and Freeman Chair in China Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), called the invitation “a very interesting move by Trump, very much in keeping with his reputation for unpredictability.” She said the invitation is part of a carrot-and-stick approach the president-elect is using to manage the world’s most critical diplomatic relationship. “It’s a very cheap carrot. It’s a symbolic carrot that slightly disrupts the tone of the relationship, without compromising American interests.”
Trump’s overture to Xi comes as strained U.S.-China relations are expected to deteriorate under the incoming administration, with the latter pledging to reinforce an already tough policy line adopted by the Biden administration, which built on the hardening of U.S. policy during Trump’s first term.
The two countries are at odds over Taiwan, an island democracy that China considers part of its territory and which the United States may or may not defend if Xi orders an invasion. China is strengthening cooperation with other U.S. foes in an informal anti-Western axis alongside Russia, North Korea and Iran. The air and naval forces of the two major Pacific powers often come dangerously close to clashes in the South China and East China Seas. Lawmakers from both parties accuse China of stealing U.S. economic and military secrets, as well as of flouting international law and trade rules.
While Trump has already threatened punitive tariffs on China, his attempt to convince Xi Jinping to visit Washington seems like a major contradiction. This raises the question for foreign governments wondering how to handle the new American president: Should they take his authoritarian tone and unpredictable policy changes seriously? Is the real American approach characterized by its radical officials and policies, or is it more accurately represented by the president-elect’s stunning moves, demonstrating his desire to make deals and sit down at the negotiating table with the world’s toughest leaders?
Trump’s invitation to Xi Jinping, though declined, raises questions about the future of U.S.-China relations and the president-elect’s diplomatic leadership. As tensions between the world’s two greatest powers continue to escalate, it is crucial to closely monitor the evolution of this complex dynamic that largely dictates the geopolitical future of the planet.