** Analysis of the Rwandan conflict and the withdrawals of the AFC-M23 rebels: a step towards peace or a strategic decline? **
On March 23, the Rwandan government welcomed with satisfaction with the announcement of the withdrawal of the rebels of the Congo (AFC-M23) alliance in Walikale, a key locality in the province of North Kivu, then under the control of the insurgents since March 19. This decision, although welcomed, raises questions about the complexity of geopolitical dynamics at stake in this region troubled by Central Africa.
### Underlinking under tension
The context of this withdrawal cannot be analyzed without taking into account the tumultuous history of relations between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), marked by decades of often interconnected conflicts. Since 2021, the AFC-M23 forces, often accused of being supported by Rwanda, have intensified their offensives in North Kivu and South Kivu, capturing strategic areas like Goma and Bukavu. This exacerbated the humanitarian crisis, testifying to a geological and human complexity where millions of Congolese find themselves moved.
### Removing: a calculated strategy?
The announcement of repositioning of AFC-M23 forces as part of a unilateral ceasefire has repercussions on the perception of security in the region, but could also be perceived as a strategic maneuver. Indeed, the AFC-M23 press release arouses curiosity about its real intentions. Why a withdrawal after so many territorial gains? The dynamics are clear: by withdrawing, the insurgents seek to influence the diplomatic debate and to strengthen their legitimacy among the local populations, while dismissing the military pressure of the FARDC.
Furthermore, the DRC armed forces have also taken note of this development, committing to suspend their offensive operations, a decision which perhaps indicates a desire to reduce tension and promote a climate conducive to negotiations. But it would be naive to think that it will be enough to establish lasting peace.
### Diplomatic efforts: complex interaction
The withdrawal of the rebels and the position of the FARDC is part of a series of diplomatic efforts aimed at restoring peace, in particular via negotiations provided for in Luanda, which could not be held due to boycott by the AFC-M23. These events highlight the ineffectiveness of peace negotiations in the region, often hampered by fracture lines between national interests and those of armed groups.
Indeed, the role of the emirate of Qatar, facilitator of discussions between Rwanda, DRC and AFC-M23, underlines new diplomatic dynamics in the African context, where new actors emerge on the international scene. The external support, whether military or diplomatic, shapes decisions in the field, but also raises the question of the dependence of local actors to external intervention models.
### Historical and reality of land
It is crucial to remember that the cycle of violence in eastern DRC is deeply rooted in historical causes such as the fight for natural resources, ethnic tensions and memories of past conflicts. Despite successful military operations of the DRC supported by powers such as the United States and European countries, the region remains unstable.
According to statistics, the DRC is rich in minerals – gold, to the Coltan – which attracts both internal and external lusts, causing conflicts for the control of these resources. Such wealth, paradoxically, contributes to the impoverishment of local populations, illustrating the absurdity of a conflict where the desire for development is transformed into an incessant war for control.
### Future prospects
This withdrawal, although seemingly positive, should not mask the complex reality that the DRC and the region of the great African lakes must sail. The promises of peace, when they are not accompanied by real structural reforms and an inclusive dialogue, risk being ephemeral. Local actors must be included in the search for sustainable solutions, and not treated as simple pawns in a complicated geopolitical game.
The coming months will be decisive. The international community and regional actors must remember that sustainable peace cannot be built on the moving sand of repression or conquest, but on the concession, dialogue and a real political will to make significant changes within Congolese society and surrounding regions. Beyond tactical withdrawals, it is the true future of peace that must be at the center of concerns.