### The economic challenges of war in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda: a harmful spiral revealed by Standard & Poor’s
The climate of instability in the east of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), exacerbated by the armed conflict between Congolese forces and rebel groups like the M23, has repercussions far beyond the simple human and material losses. The economic consequences are just as dramatic, with direct repercussions on the ability of nations to attract investments, guarantee economic growth and maintain their budgetary integrity. The Standard & Poor’s (S&P) financial rating agency has just recalled it in a recent report, warning that the deterioration of the security climate in the region could lead to a degradation of credit notes in Rwanda and the DRC.
#### A pressure economy: Rwanda in front of the shadow of sanctions
The analysis of S&P highlights the increased risk for Rwanda, which could see its foreign funding raised due to its presumed involvement in supporting M23. Indeed, the temptations to impose economic sanctions on the country intensify as the situation deteriorates. The economic consequences could be severe. The past experience shows that a drop in international aid has devastating impact: after the M23 rebellion in 2012, Rwandan growth dropped by almost 40%, a real collapse for a nation which, at the time, displayed the highest growth rates on the continent.
Rwanda largely depends on foreign aid, including Western countries which provide vital funding for infrastructure and public services. The devaluation of the Rwandan currency could result, exacerbating the economic crisis and weighing down public debt, already compromised by the Euro-lens of $ 620 million that shapes the country’s financial landscape.
#### The DRC: a budgetary challenge multiplied by war
Regarding the DRC, the economic table is just as worrying. In a context of military tensions, the government is forced to increase its defense expenses at a time when resources are already limited. S&P also alerts the risk of a state budget exhausted by prolonged conflicts, which could worsen an already well -established tax deficit. The deterioration of these economic foundations would not only have an impact on public services, but also on the confidence of foreign investors, who could backtrack in the face of increasing uncertainty.
It is notorious that the DRC has abundant natural resources, but war and political instability have often hampered the potential to increase foreign investments. This paradox, where a country rich in resources suffers from an economy at half mast, is a known fact, but also insufficiently explored. The hypothesis of an economic recovery through the export of precious minerals becomes more and more problematic in a war climate.
#### The spiral of degradation: a dynamic through time
In light of this situation, a historical analysis can also bring an enriching perspective. Conflicts in the region of the great African lakes, whether in Rwanda, DRC or Burundi, show a recurring trend: each unresolved war seems to prepare the ground for the next. The Rwanda War, for example, has already been fueled by interconnected economic interests, a complex dynamic that persists in contemporary conflicts.
Long before current climbing, Rwanda and the DRC witnessed cycles of violence fed by economic causes. The struggles for the control of resources, real or perceived, have fueled sometimes latent tensions. Now these factors combine to exacerbate the situation, threatening to create prolonged social suffering for the millions of citizens taken in vice.
#### Conclusion: Towards a redefinition of priorities
In the current context, it is imperative that the international community becomes aware of the heavy potential consequences of conflicts on economic stability and peace in the Great Lakes region. It would be judicious that stakeholders, from the Rwandan government to the DRC authorities, including international actors, meet to work on sustainable solutions that prevail for tensions and promote economic development.
The resolution of these conflicts, through constructive dialogues and cooperation, could open positive perspectives. In the end, it is crucial that peace will be restored to allow the DRC and Rwanda to straighten their economies and ensure a brighter future for their citizens. It is this vision of a peaceful future that must prevail, beyond the present convulsions.