## Analysis of the Election Results in Chad: Beyond the Votes, a Proven System
On January 21, 2024, the Constitutional Council of Chad made official the results of the legislative elections of December 29, 2023, confirming the overwhelming victory of the Patriotic Salvation Movement (MPS) and raising questions about the state of democracy in the country. While these results demonstrate the strength of the MPS, they also highlight a more complex reality that deserves in-depth reflection.
### The Figures: A Striking State of Affairs
The MPS managed to obtain 124 seats out of 188, which guarantees it an absolute majority in the new National Assembly. Compared to previous elections, this performance raises the question of the relevance of a legislative election contested in a climate of boycotted opposition. Indeed, the massive abstention of several opposition parties, as well as claims of fraud and irregularities, raise concerns about the representativeness of these results. It is important to remember that during the last presidential elections in May 2023, Mahamat Idriss Déby, son of former President Idriss Déby Itno, had already won a controversial victory. This context favors a repetitive narrative of a sick democracy, in which institutions are undermined by contested electoral practices.
### The Opposition’s Reaction: Between Incomprehension and Accusations
The reactions of the opposition, particularly those of the RNDT-Le Réveil, illustrate a deep unease. Clément Sianka, spokesperson for the RNDT, mentioned the difficulty in asserting appeals due to the lack of access to the minutes, a crucial breach in the democratic process. The Chadian electoral system, like many others in sub-Saharan Africa, seems locked in a dynamic where the lack of transparency contributes to the disillusionment of citizens, and highlights a real “democratic backsliding”.
It may also be relevant to draw a parallel with other countries in the region. Consider the Democratic Republic of Congo, where the December 2018 elections were also marked by allegations of fraud, accusations of voter intimidation and a low turnout. The result? A persistent crisis of legitimacy of the elected government. Chad seems to be heading towards a similar path if adequate measures are not taken to restore confidence in the electoral system.
### Statistical Analysis and Future Perspectives
From a statistical point of view, the fact that only one appeal out of 243 was upheld by the Constitutional Council deserves special attention. This raises questions about the capacity of the justice system to respond to the grievances raised by the opposition. In reality, these figures reveal a systemic failure to address voters’ concerns.. Transparency is the cornerstone of any functioning democracy, and the refusal to seriously consider electoral appeals contributes to a sense of impunity and mistrust.
### Conclusion: A Necessary Approach for the Future
The results of the legislative elections of December 29, 2023 pose a crucial challenge for Chad, but also for the international community. The near unanimity of the results in favor of the MPS, combined with calls for a boycott by part of the opposition, requires a reexamination of fundamental democratic values.
The future of Chad will depend not only on the acceptance of the results by political actors, but also on the establishment of a platform that promotes dialogue, transparency and respect for democratic rights. Elections are only one moment in the democratic process. For them to be meaningful, governments must integrate the voice of the population into their decisions and be receptive to criticism. Thus, Chad could envisage a future where democracy is not just a slogan, but becomes a tangible reality for all its citizens.