### The Stakes of Donald Trump’s Return for Africa: A New Era or a Mirage?
Donald Trump’s return to the American presidency has never been as turbulent as at the dawn of his second term. While the African continent is in the grip of a dynamic of change, the emergence of authoritarian leaders and the rise of nationalism highlight a fundamental debate on international relations. With his sovereignist approach, Donald Trump seems to be stoking the ambitions of some African leaders, but this allure could also mask unprecedented challenges for the continent.
#### An Ambivalent Admiration for Authoritarian Leaders
There is no denying that Trump has a penchant for “strongmen,” a tendency that resonates with some African leaders. This phenomenon is reminiscent of the foreign policy of the Cold War era, when Western powers supported often repressive regimes to stem the communist tide. However, today’s Africa is more complex and diverse, weighing the need for accountable governance against the lure of stability often provided by authoritarian regimes.
A key consideration is the historical relationship between Africa and the United States. Development assistance policies have played a crucial role so far. Yet the promise of an economic partnership without conditionalities seems appealing, although this may represent a regression from the fruits of a commitment to human rights and democracy. The question then arises: could unconditional support foster an authoritarian status quo in the long term?
#### The ramifications of protectionism
Trump has demonstrated a protectionist approach, which he justifies by a concern to defend American economic interests. The backlash from this policy could have consequences for Africa’s emerging economies, which, to thrive, require access to international markets and strategic support. For example, the African Growth Opportunity (AGOA) program allows African countries to export duty-free to the United States. However, with the potential for a reassessment of this program, it is imperative to ask whether economic stability will be undermined for short-term political considerations.
Trade links between the United States and African nations, particularly South Africa, illustrate this paradox. South Africa, as a major beneficiary of AGOA, could suffer if biased decisions are driven by protectionist rhetoric, especially given its relationships with nations such as Russia or China. This phenomenon underscores the fragile nature of global economic interdependence..
#### Diversity of strategic collaborations
If Trump wants to approach Africa through the lens of growth rather than aid, this can be seen as an opportunity for some countries to diversify their partnerships. However, it is important to note that this approach could also reinforce inequalities in a system where only nations already in a position of strength could capitalize on these opportunities. Trump’s rhetoric is part of a broader movement where several African countries, frustrated by aid policies perceived as paternalistic, are seeking to forge strategic alliances not only with the United States, but also with rivals such as China and Russia.
The proliferation of these strategic partnerships underscores the need for a critical analysis of these agreements. Trade statistics already reflect a rise in trade with non-Western powers. For example, in 2022, China was Africa’s largest trading partner, accounting for nearly 20% of trade totaling approximately $208 billion. These numbers not only point to a shift in business practices, but also to an opportunity for Africa to assert itself on the world stage, rather than remain in the shadow of American priorities.
#### Conclusion: Towards an uncertain future
In sum, Donald Trump’s return to the White House promises to be a period of upheaval for Africa. His approach to foreign policy, in favor of economic cooperation without moral dimensions, may be comforting to leaders seeking legitimacy, but it could also lead to worrying developments. African countries must navigate between divergent interests, with the fundamental challenge being to ensure that their strategic choices do not compromise the fundamental rights of their citizens or their sovereignty in the face of external pressures.
Africa has the opportunity to be a key player in the reshaping of the global order, but to do so, it will have to exercise caution in order to rise above the shadow of the great powers and build a future of its own.