**Ceasefire in Gaza: A breath of hope or a fragile illusion?**
The recent ceasefire agreement in Gaza is being welcomed as a glimmer of hope in a region marred by years of violence and suffering. As our correspondent Claire Duhamel noted, it represents “the culmination of several days of anguish”, but it also offers a glimpse of a complex reality where hope and fear coexist. Where some see a new road map to peace, others fear a resumption of tensions that could once again simmer beneath the surface.
### A delicate historical context
The Middle East region, more than just a battlefield, is a mosaic of histories, cultures and traumas. The recent ceasefire cannot be understood without considering the political and social contexts that surround it. A review of statistics from previous conflicts reveals that since 2008, Gaza has experienced several major offensives, with thousands of lives lost on both sides and infrastructure destroyed. According to UN reports, approximately 80% of Gaza’s population relies on humanitarian aid, revealing the scale of the humanitarian crisis that cannot be ignored.
### A deal suspended by mistrust
For the people of Gaza, the prospect of a ceasefire is tinged with mistrust. Local sources report countless stories of broken promises, creating a climate of skepticism about the stated intentions. This feeling is exacerbated by the fragility of the situation: the ceasefire does not begin until the Sunday following its announcement, leaving a three-day window in which hostilities could potentially escalate. According to analysts, history has shown that a delay in implementing a ceasefire can often lead to an escalation of tensions, exacerbated by latent provocations.
### The impact on the collective psyche
This ephemeral ceasefire also has a significant psychological impact on the population. Social psychology researchers have established that in contexts of protracted conflict, the hope of a truce can cause a form of collective “traumatic stress”, where expectations of a lasting peace are irremediably fragmented. The population of Gaza, while relieved by this temporary peace, remains alert, scrutinizing every Israeli military move, fearing that the truce is only a mirage in the desert of war.
### An opportunity for regional actors
It would be reductive to consider this agreement solely as a local project. On the geopolitical level, it is part of a broader dynamic. Countries in the region, including Egypt and Qatar, which acted as mediators, see the deal not only as a diplomatic victory, but as a way to stabilize their own borders and prevent a humanitarian crisis that could lead to a new wave of refugees. How this crisis is managed could have implications for diplomatic relations in the region, as well as national security policies, particularly for countries such as Turkey and Saudi Arabia.
### Towards a lasting peace?
As the world turns its gaze to Gaza, it is crucial to ask whether this deal can be the prelude to a lasting peace or whether it represents a mere bubble in a sea of tensions. Previous agreements, often signed under the aegis of international powers, have failed to produce tangible results. To this day, the persistence of the cycle of violence raises a crucial question: how – and by whom – will peace truly be built? It is imperative that meaningful discussions, involving all stakeholders, be initiated to build a solid foundation for the future.
Thus, the ceasefire in Gaza is both an opportunity and a challenge. It represents a palpable hope for those working towards a better future, but also a reminder that the paths to peace are often fraught with difficulties. As the days pass and public opinion engages in discussions on this ceasefire, it is essential to remember that words alone will not be enough. The road to lasting peace requires substantive action, mutual understanding and, above all, a genuine commitment to building bridges rather than walls.