**Chad: A State under Tension and the Challenges of a New Democracy**
The recent tragic event in N’Djamena, where nineteen people lost their lives during a violent confrontation between security forces and an armed group attempting to attack the presidential compound, illustrates once again the fragility of the security situation in Chad. While the government has tried to reassure the population by claiming that order had been restored, this attack raises much deeper questions about the country’s political stability and the evolution of its democracy.
### A Democracy Under Construction
A week after legislative elections that were seen as a step towards the restoration of democracy, it is essential to ask what these events reveal about Chadian political reality. The election, which was largely boycotted by the opposition, was marked by accusations of a lack of credibility. Indeed, the latter has raised doubts from many international observers about the regime’s ability to lead a genuine democratic process.
Elections in Chad are taking place in a context where power dynamics are often influenced by external factors and the longevity of authoritarian governance. The current regime, led by Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno, son of the former president, seized power militarily after the death of his father, who had ruled the country for thirty years. This raises comparisons with other African countries, such as Burkina Faso and Mali, where recent coups have also been justified by the need to combat insecurity.
### The ramifications of an internal coup
The attempted attack on the presidential palace is reminiscent of past efforts by armed groups to destabilize the regime. If we consider Chad as a microcosm of power struggles in Central Africa, it is useful to look at the numbers. According to data from the Chad Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies, the country has experienced nearly a dozen coups or assassination attempts since independence in 1960. This historical precedent fuels the climate of mistrust and increases tensions between the government and various opposition movements.
Statistics could also shed light on the economic challenges that fuel popular discontent. World Bank reports show that 42% of the population lives below the poverty line. At the same time, recurring humanitarian crises, such as the displacement of thousands of people due to internal conflicts and the Islamist threat in Lake Chad, further complicate this picture. In this context, violent incidents like the one in N’Djamena are part of a cycle of violence that could render the country ungovernable if the root causes are not quickly addressed..
### A military response and a discourse of control
The immediate response of the authorities, relayed by the Minister of Foreign Affairs Abderaman Koulamallah, aims to construct an image of control and security. By appearing flanked by soldiers and armed during his speech, he seems to seek to reassure not only the population but also foreign donors and partners such as China, which recently engaged in discussions with Chad on strategic issues.
However, a military response could prove to be a double-edged sword. On the one hand, it may be perceived as necessary in the face of the threat of armed attacks. On the other, it risks further widening the gap between the government and citizens, fueling a feeling of anxiety and vulnerability. To ease tensions, it is crucial that the government does not limit itself to repressive strategies, but also engages in dialogue with the opposition and civil society.
### Conclusion: Rethinking Governance in Chad
Ultimately, Chad is at a crossroads. The brutal attempted attack on the executive branch reflects a spiritual and political desolation among a portion of the population. For President Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno, the period ahead will be decisive. It is up to him to sweep away the dust of the recent elections and address the true aspirations of the Chadian people.
By expanding the avenues of political dialogue and promoting an economic refocus, Chad can aspire to a future where security is not just a matter of military presence, but of social inclusion and economic prosperity. Only participatory governance and a robust response to the population’s underlying demands can truly redefine Chad’s political landscape and offer hope for a lasting democratic recovery.