The political situation in Georgia is currently highly tense as preparations are underway for the presidential transfer of power between Salome Zurabishvili, the pro-European outgoing president, and Mikhail Kavelashvili, a far-right pro-Russian president. This political transition is at the heart of a deep crisis, marked by daily protests for over a month. These protests reflect the divisions within the Georgian population, particularly over the ruling party, the “Georgian Dream”, which is strongly contested.
In this tense context, the European Union finds itself facing a dilemma regarding its position vis-à-vis the new president and the political crisis shaking Georgia. Lukas Macek, researcher at the Jacques Delors Institute, highlights the complexity of the issues facing the EU. On the one hand, some Member States, such as the Baltic countries, are calling for a firm stance and strengthened sanctions. On the other hand, countries such as Hungary and Slovakia are adopting a more conciliatory stance towards the government in power.
This division within the European Union raises questions about its ability to adopt a common and coherent position. The issue of support for the opposition in Georgia remains central, and the EU could be led to adopt a more or less firm position, depending on future developments.
A crucial question also looms regarding the future of Georgia’s candidacy for membership of the European Union. The freezing of the accession process, initiated after the recent parliamentary elections, further complicates the situation. It remains to be seen whether the EU will maintain this freezing position or whether it will seek to engage in dialogue to promote a way out of the political crisis.
Furthermore, the European Union could influence the internal balance of power in Georgia depending on its position vis-à-vis the government in power and the opposition. European support for the pro-European opposition could strengthen its legitimacy and determination. However, a conciliatory attitude towards the ruling party would risk demobilising the opposition and jeopardising the path towards a peaceful resolution of the crisis.
Ultimately, the situation in Georgia highlights the challenges facing the European Union in terms of foreign policy and support for democratic processes. The outcome of this political crisis and the decisions taken by the EU will be crucial for the future of Georgia and for EU relations with this country in the region.