The global oil market appears to be heading towards a glut by 2025, according to the latest forecasts from the International Energy Agency (IEA). Despite multiple crises and price fluctuations, it is interesting to note that the oil sector remains in constant evolution.
Oil supply is currently in excess, and this situation is largely attributed to the increasing production of non-OPEC+ countries. The United States, Brazil, Canada, Guyana and Argentina have increased their production significantly in recent years, contributing to the global oil supply.
On the other hand, oil demand has not grown as quickly as expected. China, the main consumer of crude oil, has seen its demand growth slow, as have other emerging countries such as Nigeria, Pakistan, Indonesia, South Africa and Argentina. This slowdown in global economic growth has a direct impact on fuel demand.
In 2025, the petrochemical industry appears to be the driver of oil demand, with an expected increase in demand for naphtha. This petroleum derivative is essential for the production of plastics, such as ethylene and propylene. This trend highlights a change in the needs of the oil market, with a growing interest in industrial applications.
Despite these challenges and changes in the sector, oil prices remain relatively stable. Geopolitical uncertainties, new sanctions and prospects for economic recovery do not seem to significantly influence oil prices. This apparent stability may reflect the market’s ability to adapt to fluctuations and ongoing structural transformations.
In conclusion, 2025 is shaping up to be a key period for the global oil market. The potential supply glut and changes in demand highlight the importance of a strategic and proactive vision for industry players. The ability to anticipate trends and adapt to market developments will be essential to navigate an increasingly complex and competitive environment.