Fatshimetrie
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The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is preparing to face a critical period, marked by major security, economic and humanitarian challenges during the first half of 2025. According to the 23rd round of IPC analysis on acute food insecurity (IAA), published by FAO and WFP, the outlook is alarming for vulnerable populations throughout the country.
Security challenges in intensification
Armed conflicts are likely to intensify in several provinces, particularly in North Kivu where the advances of the M23/AFC are fueling tensions between armed groups. This violence, combined with a strengthening of the presence of armed forces in the provinces of Maniema and Mai-Ndombe, could lead to massive displacement of thousands of people forced to flee their homes.
In Tanganyika province, despite the surrender of some Twa militias in Kalemie and Nyunzu, the situation remains worrying with an intensification of armed incursions in Manono. In addition, the influx of Mbororo militias from Sudan into the provinces of Tshopo, Bas-Uélé and Haut-Uélé is aggravating tensions and causing population movements.
Imminent food and economic crisis
The food situation is likely to deteriorate further, with lower than expected agricultural production due to conflicts and climatic hazards. The continued depreciation of the national currency will impact the prices of staple foods, such as cassava and maize flour, making access to food increasingly difficult for the most vulnerable households.
The floods expected during the rainy season are likely to aggravate the difficulties by damaging crops, disrupting the transport of goods and affecting fishing activities. In this context, the poorest populations will face increased food insecurity.
Health challenges and epidemic risks
Health authorities anticipate an increase in cases of malaria, measles and cholera, particularly in Maniema province due to seasonal rains. Animal diseases, such as swine fever, and crop diseases such as cassava rot, could also worsen, threatening the livelihoods of herders and farmers.
Insufficient humanitarian funding
Forecasts indicate a continued low level of humanitarian funding, limiting food assistance mainly to displaced persons. Efforts to improve livelihoods will remain marginal, increasing the vulnerability of affected populations.
Short-term outlook
Despite the government’s plan to develop road infrastructure in the 145 territories, its short-term impacts are likely to be limited. The expected improvements may only be felt in the medium term, leaving local populations exposed to immediate challenges.
In conclusion, the IPC analysis highlights the urgency of a rapid and coordinated response to mitigate the impacts of these risks on the already fragile populations of the DRC. However, without improved financing and without security stabilization, the period from January to June 2025 promises to be particularly difficult for the country, with an uncertain future for its inhabitants.