The historic agreement between Mauritius and the United Kingdom concerning the sovereignty of the Chagos is a complex subject that raises considerable political and geostrategic issues. This agreement of October 3, 2024 marked a significant step forward in the settlement of the territorial dispute that has opposed the two countries for half a century. It finally recognizes Mauritian sovereignty over the Chagos archipelago, but the future of the American military base of Diego Garcia and the return of the Chagossians to their lands remain sensitive points.
The possibility of a return of Trump to the White House could compromise this agreement and call into question the decision to recognize Mauritian sovereignty over the Chagos. Indeed, the American military base of Diego Garcia, strategic for the United States, is at the heart of this issue. Some observers fear that the previous American administration, more conservative, will call into question the progress made so far.
Milan Meetarbhan, former ambassador of Mauritius to the United Nations, points out the risk of a pause in negotiations while the new US administration takes a position. It is clear that conservative elements in the US could be reluctant to support a deal that could grant similar benefits to other countries regarding the Chagos Archipelago.
The prospect of Joe Biden finally helping to finalise a treaty with the UK before a potential Republican return in January 2025 is crucial for Mauritius. However, Jean-Claude de l’Estrac, former foreign minister, anticipates complex negotiations ahead. British parliamentarians hostile to the Mauritius-UK deal have already contacted the Trump team, raising the risk of a hardening of the British position.
However, despite these challenges, Mauritius maintains its legitimate demand for compensation for the 56 years of occupation of the Chagos, royalties for the US base on Diego Garcia, and the return of the Chagossians to part of their ancestral lands. The outcome of the upcoming negotiations remains uncertain, but it is crucial that stakeholders, including the United States, the United Kingdom and Mauritius, work together to reach a fair and balanced resolution to this sensitive issue.
In this context, it is essential to closely monitor developments and remain attentive to the various actors involved in this crucial issue for the Indian Ocean region. Diplomacy and dialogue remain the keys to reaching a consensus that respects the rights of all and ensures stability and peace in the region.