The global economic landscape for 2025 is complex and constantly evolving, with varying outlooks across regions and sectors. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that global economic growth will slow slightly to 3.2% this year, but will remain at that level in 2025. However, behind these stable figures lie significant regional and sectoral changes that may influence the global economy in the years to come.
One of the major trends is the expected decline in global inflation. According to the IMF, inflation is expected to reach 5.8% this year before declining to 4.3% in 2025. This decline is more pronounced in advanced economies, where inflation is expected to fall to 2% next year, compared to emerging and developing economies where inflation is expected to remain at a higher level, at 5.9% in 2025.
IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas stressed that the fight against inflation is on track and that reducing inflation without triggering a global recession is a major achievement. However, the IMF WEO report warns of increasing risks to long-term global economic growth, with projections indicating moderate growth of 3.1% by 2029.
From a regional perspective, the United States remains an engine of global growth, while the euro area is experiencing a slower expansion. The U.S. economy is expected to grow 2.8% this year, slightly below the 2.9% growth rate last year but still above the IMF’s previous estimates. Growth is expected to slow to 2.2% in 2025, reflecting a gradual tightening of fiscal policy and a slowdown in the labor market.
In Europe, growth remains weak by historical standards, with rates expected to be 0.8% this year and rising slightly to 1.2% in 2025. France and Spain received improved outlooks for 2024, while Germany saw its growth projections revised downward, reflecting continued weakness in manufacturing.
In a broader context, China and India are experiencing slowing economic growth. China is expected to see growth slow from 5.2% last year to 4.8% in 2025, while India is expected to slow more sharply, from 8.2% in 2023 to 7.0% this year, and projected to 6.5% in 2025.
In conclusion, the global economic landscape for the coming years is marked by contrasting trends across regions and sectors, with challenges and opportunities to be addressed to ensure sustained and inclusive growth. Economic policies, labour market conditions and sectoral developments will play a crucial role in shaping the dynamics of the global economy in the medium term. Vigilance and international cooperation will be essential to address the economic challenges ahead and promote sustainable and resilient growth for all.