The world is abuzz with news of the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. The loss threatens to catalyze the long-running insurgency he launched against Israel, experts say. Indeed, the group may well change its tactics as its leaders are eliminated.
The war between Israel and Hamas is semi-conventional in nature, but Israel is struggling to grasp the real fight the group wants. Hussein Ibish, a senior analyst at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, says Hamas is aiming for “an open and open-ended insurgency against Israeli forces in the Gaza Strip.” He says Hamas’s war is just beginning, taking the form of disorganized cells of guerrillas and insurgents. These groups can operate autonomously, without the need for an integrated, top-down command structure.
Hamas could survive using low-caliber, unsophisticated weapons, such as pistols, small machine guns and even homemade improvised explosive devices. They operate under extreme conditions, and their members are willing to die for their cause, Ibish explains.
Similar situations have presented themselves to other nations fighting non-state groups, such as the Soviet Union in Afghanistan, the United States in Vietnam, and even Israel itself in 1982. That year, an invasion to expel the Palestine Liberation Organization from Beirut gave rise to the much more powerful Hezbollah.
Frank Lowenstein, a former special envoy for Middle East peace in the Obama administration, points out that while Israelis feel empowered by Sinwar’s demise, there is no mistaking Hamas’s defeat. Killing a leader does not eradicate an ideology.
Sinwar’s death creates a leadership vacuum in Gaza that, if not filled, threatens to undermine any meaningful negotiations or agreement on a hostage ceasefire, which the United States considers essential.
In this uncertain climate, it is imperative to remain vigilant about future developments and the potential implications of his disappearance for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Hamas, far from being annihilated, may well reinvent itself and persist in its fight, more determined than ever.