**Nigeria 2027: What Path for Political Change?**
At the heart of political concerns in Nigeria is the perpetual quest for change. Since the 1970s, calls for change have multiplied, giving birth to the Fourth Republic while in 2015, a new democratic era was dawning. That year, marked by an electoral earthquake, the apostles of change were ready to give a new trajectory to Nigerian politics, reminiscent in some ways of 1975, when patriotic generals had committed to reinventing the nation.
However, unlike the generals who succeeded in reinvigorating the country, the 2015 apostles of change have wasted almost a decade going around in circles, wandering in the political wilderness, making it imperative for another change in 2027. This is not surprising because despite its popular appeal, the 2015 vehicle of change was not anchored in any solid trajectory (reformist or revolutionary).
A frozen politics, whether democratic, monarchical or totalitarian, can facilitate progressive or retrogressive change. Unfortunately, the seekers of change in Nigeria have been sold an illusion of change. Some apostles of change have metamorphosed into political monsters, completely disavowing the mantra of change that brought them to power. This transformation highlights the calculated indifference of the APC leadership to the existential plight of Nigerians.
Unfortunately for the apostles of change (former PMB and PBAT), the parlous state of the country that made change inevitable in 2015 is back in the news, making a new change imperative in 2027. In the face of this need for change looming over the country, how could we effect a political change substantially different from that of 2015? The fiasco of change in 2015 was a status quo disguised as democratic populism, a reorganization of the same political actors from one platform to another; a reuse of the old wine in a new bottle, based essentially on a two-person political partnership, with one preachy and uneducated partner trying to exorcise the movement of its prebendary attributes, while the other wily partner, allied with disgruntled politicians of other persuasions, would provide it with a solid political anchor to redress a troubled nation.
The political change of 2015 was doomed to failure because of its shortcomings, including: 1. It lacked a solid ideological base (secular or theocratic), of the type that has propelled progressive changes in other countries; 2. Being an offshoot of the old regime, the party of change could not depart from the business-as-usual trajectory inherited from its predecessors; 3. Led by democratic despots with little inclination to other points of view; 4. Dancing to the tune of external stakeholders who determine the nature and direction of change; 5. Criminalizing any questioning of the derailment of the trajectory of change; violating values such as freedom and justice; 6. Dividing the nation into victims and winners; and disproportionately distributing the burdens and benefits of change among them.
With the removal of subsidies, disorienting stagflation, nepotism in government and the disproportionate increased mobilization of scarce funds for the comfort of leaders, coupled with increasing poverty in the country, Nigerians have belatedly realized that the pre-2015 era was a kind of El Dorado. If the Tinubu regime persists with its policies that neglect the people, the momentum for change in 2015 will be child’s play compared to that of 2027.
The lessons of 2015 and 2023 are these: disunited opposition parties struggle to wrest power from a ruling party in Nigeria, and an uneducated president, or one with international or corporate connections, cannot implement a change agenda that will satisfy Nigerians while displeasing Washington and the multilateral institutions it controls.
But are the opposition parties ready to wrest power from the APC in 2027?
Before and after the 2023 presidential election, the main opposition party, the PDP, has been led by visionless leaders whose political calculations aimed at retaining control of Rivers State at all costs have crippled the party in its ability to deal decisively with the Wike issue. By the time the party recovers from these shocks, it will have lost a lot of momentum as the main opposition party.
Another tragedy for the PDP is its loss in the recent Edo State governorship election. The internal wrangling within the Labour Party, as well as the signals sent by Mr Peter Obi that he would not be Vice Presidential material, and Dr Rabiu Kwankwaso’s disparaging comment that the PDP is dead, underscore the division and fragility of the opposition, and the difficulties of forming a united front against the APC in 2027.
For political change to resonate with Nigerians, it must be either revolutionary or theocratic. While the multi-religious nature of the country precludes theocratic political change, leaving room for revolutionary change that will need to be defined and implemented with wisdom and discernment.
Ultimately, the path to political change in Nigeria in 2027 remains uncertain. The obstacles and challenges are many, but in the face of the dire need for positive change for the country, it is crucial that political actors rethink their strategies and actions to bring about genuine and beneficial change for all Nigerians.
Nigeria’s destiny in 2027 rests in the hands of its leaders and citizens. It is time to make bold decisions, commit to a better future, and forge a path together towards authentic and transformative political change. The Nigeria of tomorrow depends on the actions we take today.