Over the decades, population projections have been a constant subject of attention and concern, providing crucial insight into the evolution of our planet. The latest UN report on world population offers intriguing data, predicting that the population peak will be reached in the mid-2080s, before declining slightly to stabilize at around 10.2 billion people by the end of the century.
In this anticipated scenario, the Assistant Secretary General for Economic Development at the Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA), Navid Hanif, highlights the significant impact of these figures on global policies and the sustainability of our planet. Compared to forecasts made a decade ago, the world population in 2100 is expected to be 6% lower, or 700 million fewer people, an essential revision with major policy implications for the sustainability of our environment.
This adjustment is driven by several factors, including slowing fertility rates in some of the world’s most populous countries, led by China. Additionally, the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic have positively influenced overall life expectancy, projecting that people aged 65 and over will outnumber children under 18 by 2080.
Migration will also play a crucial role in the future population growth of certain regions. Demographic variations demonstrate that although population growth can impact the environment, it is above all human behavior that determines the extent of ecological consequences.
It is interesting to note that, globally, women have on average one fewer child than in 1990, directly influencing population projections. Looking closer, we see that by 2024, 63 countries such as China, Germany, Japan and Russia will have reached their population peak, with an estimated decline of 14% over the next thirty years.
Furthermore, in 48 other countries such as Brazil, Iran, Turkey and Vietnam, the population peak is expected between 2025 and 2054. The remaining 126 countries, including demographic giants such as India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan and the United States are expected to see their populations increase until 2054, with some peaking only in the second half of the century.
Finally, nine countries including Angola, the Central African Republic, the DRC, Niger and Somalia are expected to experience very rapid demographic growth, doubling their populations by 2054. This complex evolution of global demographics raises considerable challenges for global policies, environmental sustainability and social balance. These trends invite us to rethink our economic models, our migration policies and our development initiatives to guarantee a viable future for our planet and its inhabitants.