Fatshimetrie – Former President Donald Trump’s next campaign event will be his first as a convicted felon. The date of this event remains uncertain, adding to an already extraordinary political climate following the events of the past week.
The guilty verdict on 34 counts handed down Thursday by a Manhattan jury – the first criminal conviction of a former president – sent shockwaves through the American political landscape. Although the Trump campaign anticipated this outcome, preparing its candidate and his supporters for an unfavorable outcome by presenting the case as a political spectacle, the arrival of the verdict plunged every future decision into uncertainty.
No one can predict with certainty how voters will react to this historic moment, or how they will weigh Trump’s conviction compared to other factors – their opinion of President Joe Biden, economic issues such as inflation or access to abortion, or even their personal health.
Even if the small fraction of undecided Americans remain unmoved by the jury’s decision, it is unclear whether they will turn to an angry candidate and a party clearly seeking revenge.
Trump’s instinct to fight back when cornered was on display Friday during his 33-minute speech at Trump Tower, where he criticized trial judge Juan Merchan and called his former lawyer, Michael Cohen, of “corrupt”. He continued to claim that Biden was behind the New York embezzlement case, an assertion he regularly repeats without evidence.
At the end of his speech, the former president signaled his willingness to return to the campaign trail after spending the past two months mostly chained in a Manhattan courtroom.
“November 5 is the most important day in the history of the country,” Trump said Friday, saying the election would bring “the real verdict.”
However, it’s unclear when Trump plans to hit the road again. His calendar is notably empty, with no announced public events coming up, planning intended to accommodate jury deliberations that could have dragged on indefinitely.
Trump is expected to spend the weekend at his golf club in Bedminster, New Jersey, before beginning a West Coast fundraising tour with stops in California and Nevada next week.
The embezzlement case is far from over and will continue to loom over the political season. Trump and his lawyer, Todd Blanche, have indicated they will appeal, a process that could extend beyond the election campaign itself. A nondisclosure order limiting who Trump could speak with during court proceedings remains in effect.
Merchan has set a sentencing date for July, just before Republicans gather in Milwaukee to formally nominate Trump at their national convention. The former president’s legal team has not yet decided whether to seek a postponement, leaving open the possibility that his conviction could become a focal point of the party’s convention message.
Using the Legal Drama
Trump has exploited his legal troubles since March 2023, when the New York grand jury issued the first of four indictments against the former president. Those indictments effectively mobilized Republican voters around Trump’s third run for the White House, helping him weather a well-funded primary contest led by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and others who thought the party might be ready to move on.
In campaign speeches across the country over the past year, Trump has often obsessed over his legal affairs, using them to mobilize his supporters and even reach new audiences. He suggested that his mug shot, taken after he was indicted in Georgia for trying to overturn the 2020 election, might appeal to African-American voters. Last weekend, Trump tried to connect with libertarian audiences by mentioning the charges he faces.
“This is an unprecedented political situation that is shaking the foundations of America. Donald Trump’s political future is far from predetermined, and only time will tell how these extraordinary events will shape the political landscape as we approach the crucial election,” concludes a political observer from Fatshimetrie.
This analysis raises key questions about current political dynamics and invites deep reflection on how these events will impact the future of the nation.