At the heart of South African political excitement, the picture of a new era emerges, marked by the recent events of the general election. Wednesday’s election propelled the country into an accelerated transition, gradually abandoning the dominance of the African National Congress (ANC).
For decades, the middle class, both on the left and the right, had aspired to end the supremacy of the ANC. And now it’s done. This is what it looks like, ladies and gentlemen.
The outcome of this national general election places South Africa at a profound crossroads. This is a seismic moment for democracy, but also a delicate moment.
At the end of the vote, a new landscape emerges. A harsh, complex and precarious landscape.
It is both a victory for competitive multi-party constitutional democracy and a dangerous slide towards the muscular populism, ethnic nationalism and demagogic narcissism that increasingly characterize the global political scene.
A bright future looms, but a dark future also looms on the horizon. Both options are on the table. Risks and uncertainty are increasing, rightfully causing concern and anxiety.
The stakes are very high.
Without a clear winner, a coalition government will have to be formed, or a minority government – likely the ANC – will have to attempt to govern without a majority or supporting alliance in place.
The low road would be characterized by the transactional politics of rent-seeking and clientelism, with harmful consequences in terms of the rule of law, human rights and the institutional balance of the constitution.
This would constitute a very serious threat to progressive and liberal projects, regardless of the emancipatory discourse of populists. After all, MK’s manifesto promises a return to feudalism and an end to constitutional supremacy.
In contrast, the high road has the potential to seed the maturation of a new political culture in which government partners bring out the best in each other, and a broader and deeper alliance of interests is reflected in policies and Greater accountability ensures better quality public services and governance.
This will require moderate actors to put aside their egos and any historical animosity, in order to place the country’s best interests at the center of their negotiating strategy.
This will, in turn, require high-level leadership. It will take leaders who can balance their own interests and those of their parties with other interests, even where compromise might harm their own short-term interests or require a sacrifice of power..
When history presents moments like these – of fundamental change, profound complexity and potential crisis – the opportunity for great leadership to transcend short-term interests presents itself.
Do we have such leaders? We will soon find out. History will honor those who rise to the challenge and will judge harshly those who fail to do so.
Against this extraordinary backdrop, how should South Africa’s political leaders approach the coalition negotiations in the coming days?
Coalition politics is a completely new way of doing politics that the country’s political parties are not used to. Although it was anticipated, South Africa’s political culture, and even its legal framework, is not very well prepared for it.
An example of the illegality of the legal system when it comes to coalition politics is that the Constitution only allows a period of 14 days between the declaration of the results of this election and the first sitting of Parliament, where the constitution requires that the new President be elected.
This is unusually short compared to countries with mature coalition cultures, where coalition negotiations have the space to form appropriate and lasting agreements, even if it takes months.
So the pressure is doubled. Great leadership is required, and fast. Clairvoyance and courage must be required (day and night).
Despite the ticking of the clock, political leaders must resist the temptation to make botched, transactional deals of the type that have undermined governance at local authority level since 2016.
What makes a ‘good’ deal? What are the essential elements that will underpin a stable and resilient coalition arrangement?
First of all, a good deal doesn’t make everyone happy. A good agreement makes everyone equally unhappy, but nevertheless sufficiently satisfied with the result.
It cannot be proportional. In other words, just because you have 42% and are the largest party doesn’t mean you should get all the rewards. Power must be shared. A dose of humility will be necessary, recognizing that smaller partners are essential to the viability and longevity of the coalition.