Agricultural protests in India: A new standoff with the government ahead of the 2024 election

Protest against India’s farm laws 2024

Nearly two years after forcing Prime Minister Narendra Modi into a dramatic U-turn, India’s protesting farmers are back on the streets – and this time, the stakes are even higher.

For about two weeks, thousands of angry farmers have gathered on the borders of the Indian capital to demand higher fixed prices for their crops, just weeks before a national election that is expected to see Modi win a rare third term in office in power.

A heavy police presence has so far prevented farmers from marching on New Delhi and violent clashes have seen police use tear gas and water cannons. Tensions further increased last week following the death of a protester near the Punjab border, according to the head of state, who ordered an investigation into the matter.

The scene is reminiscent of 2021, when, in a rare concession to his hardline leadership style, Modi repealed controversial laws aimed at modernizing the agriculture sector following more than a year of massive farmer protests.

Modi promised “a new beginning”, pledging to respond to farmers’ demands and work with them moving forward.

But farmers say those promises have been broken and this time they will not return home until their demands are met.

The confrontation, analysts say, is causing apprehension among the highest echelons of Modi’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which fears antagonizing farmers – one of the most influential voting blocs in the country – in the run-up to an election scheduled for May.

With the BJP facing a fragmented opposition that is yet to nominate a clear candidate for the post of Prime Minister, the farmers pose a serious threat to the ruling party, some analysts say.

And if the protests gain momentum, like what happened in 2021, this could become a bigger issue for Modi.

“For now, there seems to be only one opposition – the farmers,” said economist Devinder Sharma. “Politics is unpredictable, but it is very important that the unions and the government find a solution.”

New requirements

Sangha Gurpreet remembers the day he abandoned his field for a protest site in November 2020, observing its growth over the following year.

‘I have been in this struggle for 13 months,’ says activist and farmer of historic protests that shook Indian society and launched a national debate over the country’s agricultural workers.

These protests began after the BJP introduced three new laws that it claimed were aimed at solving problems in the agricultural system.

The farm laws aim to relax rules governing the sale, pricing and storage of agricultural products that have protected farmers from an uncontrolled free market for decades. But farmers said market forces could drive prices down even further and make it difficult for small farmers to negotiate favorable deals with industry giants.

Gurpreet was among hundreds of thousands of farmers in India’s northern states – Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh – who were calling for the laws to be repealed. They remained on the streets despite a harsh winter, a scorching summer and a global pandemic until Modi finally gave in and promised to work with them to find a deal.

It was a landslide victory for farmers, who pushed the Indian leader into a rare and atypical concession.

And Gurpreet says they’re ready to do it again.

“These are not new demands. These demands have been transmitted to the government and have already been either accepted in writing, promised in their election manifesto, or announced in public speeches,” he said. “All we had to do was take to the streets and ask the government to give us what we want.”

Agriculture Minister Arjun Munda, who held discussions with protest leaders, told reporters the government believed a “peaceful” solution would be found soon.

Poverty of farmers

Agriculture is the primary source of livelihood for about 55% of India’s 1.4 billion citizens, according to the India Brand Equity Foundation, an organization set up by the country’s Commerce Department to promote Indian products and services.

Only China produces more rice, wheat, cotton, peanuts, fruits and vegetables than India. Only Brazil produces more sugar cane.

Yet farm households earned an average of 10,218 rupees ($137) a month in 2018-19, according to the latest government statistics – 316 rupees less than the country’s average wage that year.

Farmers are demanding a higher and guaranteed minimum support price (MSP) for all the crops they grow, to provide them with more financial stability and control.

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