Minutes before Halloween, pre-election polls shook the American political landscape by giving victory to Donald Trump over outgoing President Joe Biden. These results created shock waves in the political sphere, with potential consequences for the 2024 presidential elections.
According to a poll recently published by the New York Times, the Republican billionaire dominates his Democratic opponent in five out of six key states, notably in states which had nevertheless swung in favor of Joe Biden during the 2020 presidential election.
These worrying data for Joe Biden’s team were also confirmed by a poll commissioned by CBS. The figures reveal that Donald Trump is leading overall voting intentions, with a margin of three points ahead of Joe Biden.
These cheesy predictions for the Biden administration have raised legitimate concerns within the Democratic camp. Political strategists say the president will have to make wise decisions for the good of the country in order to restore the confidence of the American population.
However, it is important to note that pre-election polls should be taken with caution, as they can change significantly between now and the election. The polls which predicted a crushing defeat for former President Barack Obama a year before his election bear witness to this fluctuation.
In addition, polls not only give an indication of voters’ voting intentions, but they also highlight the ambient pessimism that reigns among the American population. According to several opinion surveys, a large majority of Americans believe that the country is heading in the wrong direction. Concerns about purchasing power, inflation and the international situation have contributed to this negative mindset.
Another notable factor in this analysis is the growing outrage over the US position during the conflict between Israel and Hamas. Young voters, as well as Muslim and Arab Americans, are particularly unhappy with the way Joe Biden has responded to this situation. This disagreement may influence their choice of vote in the next elections.
In conclusion, although current pre-election polls may appear unfavorable for Joe Biden, it is important to keep in mind that they are only a snapshot of public opinion at any given time. The elections are still far away and a lot can change between now and then. What is certain is that Joe Biden will have to demonstrate leadership, decisiveness and the ability to restore voter confidence if he wants to strengthen his chances of re-election in 2024.