Recent news has been marked by a show of force by Russia, which has carried out test firings of ballistic missiles simulating a “massive nuclear strike”. At the same time, the country revoked its ratification of a treaty banning atomic testing. These events, while not posing an immediate threat, highlight a worrying trend in global nuclear arms control policy.
Russian President Vladimir Putin supervised these ballistic missile launches during military maneuvers. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said the exercises were a response to an “enemy nuclear strike.” At the same time, the Russian Parliament voted to revoke the ratification of a major treaty banning atomic tests.
This decision comes against a backdrop of growing tensions between Russia and the United States, due to the war in Ukraine. In February 2023, Russia had already suspended its participation in the New START agreement, the last bilateral nuclear arms control treaty between the two countries.
To better understand the implications of these events and the risks they entail, we interviewed Héloïse Fayet, researcher at the Ifri Center for Security Studies and coordinator of the Deterrence and Proliferation program.
According to Héloïse Fayet, these demonstrations of force by Russia must be taken seriously, because they are a reminder of the deterrent capabilities that it has in the event of difficulties on the ground. However, she believes that there are no signs that Russia could actually unleash nuclear weapons, as this would be counterproductive in the context of the conflict in Ukraine.
Concerning the revocation of the ratification of the treaty banning atomic tests, Héloïse Fayet explains that this treaty prohibits all nuclear tests, including underground tests. Although this treaty has not yet been ratified by countries like the United States and China, Russia has decided to revoke its ratification in order to put itself on the same level as the United States. She emphasizes, however, that this revocation is above all symbolic and aims to criticize the standards imposed by the West.
Regarding the New START agreement, Héloïse Fayet believes that it is now buried, since Russia has suspended its participation and no discussions are underway. She notes that the issue of nuclear arms control is affected by rivalries between great powers, when it should be protected from these conflicts.
In conclusion, Russia’s recent shows of force and the revocation of the ratification of the Treaty Banning Atomic Tests illustrate the decline in global nuclear arms control policy.. Although these events do not represent an immediate threat, they contribute to an increase in tensions and a questioning of international disarmament agreements. It is essential that the international community redouble its efforts to maintain stability and preserve global security.