The future of the Gaza enclave: between reoccupation and transition
US President Joe Biden recently warned against the prospect of Israel re-occupying the Gaza Strip, calling such action a “grave mistake”. While the debate mainly focuses on the tactical aspects of the planned military ground operation, it is important to consider the long-term consequences of a possible elimination of Hamas in Gaza.
An Israeli reoccupation of Gaza would be a return to the situation before 2005, when the Israeli withdrawal from the region was decided due to the difficulty of managing a hostile population of more than a million Palestinians. This time around, Gaza’s population exceeds two million, meaning the financial and human cost of such an occupation would be considerable.
In addition to logistical and financial challenges, a reoccupation of Gaza would also have diplomatic repercussions. Israel’s relations with Arab countries could be affected, including ongoing negotiations with Saudi Arabia. Moreover, it would run counter to U.S. efforts toward a two-state solution to resolve the Middle East conflict.
But if reoccupation is not a viable option, who could take over from Hamas in Gaza? A period of transition would be inevitable after Israel destroys Hamas’ military capabilities. A natural solution would be to find an arrangement with the Palestinian Authority, which already governs the West Bank. Mahmoud Abbas, the president of the Palestinian Authority, has also made statements distancing himself from Hamas, affirming that their actions do not represent the Palestinian people.
Such a transition would require careful management and discussions between the parties involved. The stability and security of Gaza are essential, as well as the search for a more lasting solution that respects the rights of the Palestinians. International coordination and diplomatic support would be necessary to facilitate this transition and avoid an escalation of violence in the region.
In conclusion, the future of the Gaza enclave remains uncertain. While discussions focus on the tactical aspects of the planned military ground operation, it is crucial to consider the long-term consequences of a possible Israeli victory. A reoccupation of Gaza is not a viable option, raising questions about the transition and who might take over from Hamas in power. A cautious approach and international coordination will be essential to ensure the stability and security of the region.