Title: “Niger facing the ECOWAS ultimatum: the issues and possible scenarios”
Introduction:
In Niger, pressure is at its peak as the deadline set by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) approaches for the release of President Mohamed Bazoum and the return to constitutional order . While the ECOWAS ultimatum ends in three days, discussions are underway to find a solution to the political crisis that has shaken the country since the coup d’état. In this article, we will examine the latest developments and possible scenarios regarding ECOWAS intervention.
Negotiations in progress:
Since the announcement of the ECOWAS ultimatum, negotiations have been underway to try to find a peaceful solution to the crisis. An ECOWAS delegation, led by former Nigerian President Abdulsalami Abubakar, is expected in Niamey to facilitate the talks. Discussions focus on the release of President Bazoum and the restoration of constitutional order.
The vision of ECOWAS:
According to Olushegun Adjadi Bakari, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Benin, ECOWAS considers that this is a hostage-taking and not a coup d’état. The main objective is therefore to free President Bazoum so that he can return to his democratically elected functions. ECOWAS favors dialogue and negotiation, but it is ready to take all necessary measures, including the use of force, if the ultimatum is not respected.
A peaceful end to the crisis, but firmness remains essential:
The ultimate objective is to achieve a peaceful and violence-free end to the crisis. However, ECOWAS insists on the importance of preserving democratic values and political stability in the region. If the ruling military refuses to hand over power before the deadline, ECOWAS will consider all other options, including the use of force.
Military intervention envisaged:
The chiefs of staff of ECOWAS member countries are meeting in Abuja to develop a military intervention plan if necessary. Although the goal remains to avoid such intervention, it is essential to prepare for all eventualities. If a military intervention is decided, ECOWAS member countries, including Benin, could be mobilized to enforce constitutional order in Niger.
Risks and consequences:
Despite ECOWAS’s desire to restore constitutional order in Niger, a military intervention could trigger regional tensions. Military regimes in Mali and Burkina Faso have warned that any intervention in Niger would be considered a declaration of war. It is therefore crucial to find a peaceful solution that preserves the stability of the region and avoids any regional conflict..
Conclusion:
As the ECOWAS ultimatum approaches, negotiations are underway to find a peaceful solution to the political crisis in Niger. ECOWAS favors dialogue, but remains firm on the need to restore constitutional order. Military intervention is envisaged in the event of non-compliance with the ultimatum, but regional consequences must be taken into account. Niger’s political future will depend on how the negotiations take place and the willingness of the parties involved to find a compromise acceptable to all.