Joseph Kabila: What impact will his political return have on the unstable political situation in the DRC?
The return of Joseph Kabila to the Congolese political scene should reshuffle the political cards and move the lines. After two decades spent as the alpha and omega of the politico-institutional life of the country, it could well be considered the last resort, the long-awaited rescue by a disenchanted population.
However, the pedigree of the former president carries as many advantages as disadvantages. If he is respected for his status, he flies very high and he could well put himself in a delicate position by stepping back into the political arena. Indeed, the political scene he is about to return to is no longer quite the same.
A lot of water has flowed under the N’sele bridge since the Congolese witnessed the hyper-scripted transfer of power, and the change long awaited by the silent majority is long overdue. The indicators of “misery” generally remain as they are. Already proverbially weak, purchasing power has shrunk further.
However, as is customary, people tend to worship today what they burned yesterday, and vice versa. Thus, Joseph Kabila could well be the providential man that the DRC is desperately waiting for to emerge from the political and economic crisis.
However, his return could also turn out to be one fight too many, descending into the political arena and exposing himself to criticism and blows. In addition, the match is no longer the same: if the playing area is the same, many players have changed jackets following the big transfer window operated by the new coach-sponsor.
Consequently, the success of this political comeback will depend on the perception that the Congolese will have of it. If Joseph Kabila manages to show that he is capable of getting the country out of its crisis, he will have silenced the critics and opponents who hold him responsible for all the ills of the DRC since its independence. But nothing is less certain, and the risk is great of seeing this return turn into yet another political fight, without real progress for Congolese citizens.