The president of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and Nigeria, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, is facing growing distrust from public opinion and the Nigerian Senate regarding a possible military intervention in Niger. This situation has become a subject of concern and debate in the country.
Nigerians have strongly opposed a joint ECOWAS military intervention in Niger. Several Islamic leaders, governors, youth associations and opposition parties have expressed their disagreement with this option. The Nigerian Senate, meanwhile, has been reluctant to the idea of military intervention, expressing its preference for diplomatic and political solutions to resolve the crisis in Niger.
Senators from northern Nigeria have expressed concerns about the consequences that a military intervention could have in the states bordering Niger. They highlighted the geographic proximity between the two countries and the potential national security risks.
However, the Nigerian Constitution stipulates that any declaration of war or deployment of armed forces abroad must be approved by Parliament, meeting in joint session. This Senate approval is therefore essential for any military action.
Interestingly, during the ECOWAS operation to oust Yahya Jammeh from power in The Gambia in 2017, President Muhammadu Buhari mobilized Nigerian troops without first consulting the Senate. However, the current situation is different, with greater geographic proximity between Nigeria and Niger, which makes Senate consent all the more crucial.
Bola Ahmed Tinubu, as President of ECOWAS and President of Nigeria, faces a delicate dilemma. On the one hand, it must show its determination at the regional level by supporting a possible military intervention. On the other hand, he must take into account the concerns and reluctance of the public opinion and the Nigerian Senate, which could oppose such an action.
It remains to be seen how Bola Tinubu will navigate these troubled waters and how he will manage to balance his responsibilities as President of ECOWAS and President of Nigeria, while taking into account the country’s internal concerns. The future of the situation in Niger and the final decision on a possible military intervention will largely depend on the management of this crisis by Bola Tinubu and his ability to find a consensus