** A new chapter for Syria: towards sustainable reconciliation or an illusion of peace? **
On March 29, 2023 will remain engraved in the recent history of Syria as the moment when a new transitional government took office, almost four months after the fall of the Bashar El-Assad regime. With a cabinet of 23 members, the country seems to go to an era of changes. However, beyond the fanfare and the promises of a radiant future, hide crucial questions on the viability of this new administration and its effective impact on the ground.
### A complex political structure
The new cabinet, which stands out for its religious and ethnic diversity, consists of both old and new personalities, but without Prime Minister in mind. This choice, although innovating within the framework of a transition to democracy, raises questions about the real authority of this assembly. In not only the absence of a strong leader could lead to internal dissensions, but this also raises the question of governance in a state already weakened by years of civil war. The symbol of the secretary general can seduce on the theoretical level, but he forgets a crucial political reality: the need for a charismatic and unifying figure.
### A context of persistent violence
The promises of the new administration are tainted by continuous violence, with clashes targeting members of the Alawite sect which caused more than 1,000 people. This spiral of violence only recalls how a distant national reconciliation remains. The redevelopments within the government seem, at first glance, to accept international requirements to include minorities and women, but can also be perceived as a facade to appease criticism and lift economic sanctions which already suffocate the population.
In parallel, it is essential to wonder if the composition of this new cabinet is really representative of the different groups in Syria. By connecting recent strokes in other Arab countries, as in Libya and Sudan, we can see a recurring scheme where governments try to please Western powers without really sending the legitimate demands of their citizens.
### Economic and humanitarian challenges
It is undeniable that the Syrian economy is in crisis, with 90 % of the population living below the poverty line. The promise made by the Minister of Energy, Mohammed Al-Bashir, to restore the key sectors of electricity and oil is crucial. However, only real collaboration with fervent local players and the integration of long -term development studies will create the conditions for an economic renewal.
Humanitarian challenges, exacerbated by decades of conflict and international sanctions, remain monumental. The billions spent on international aid are not enough to mask the absence of lasting strategies to restore human dignity. The takeover by the transitional government could be a turning point, but it is vital that international actors, as well as autonomous governments in Syria, understand that the cessation of hostilities involves the eradication of the deep causes of these conflicts.
### International comparisons
As part of a comparative analysis, it is interesting to examine how other countries, such as Tunisia and Lebanon, have tried similar transitions in crisis situations. Although successes have been obtained, the challenges persist. Tunisia, for example, is still struggling with the consequences of an unfinished revolution (the phenomenon of “disgust” in the face of the political elite), while seeking to establish solid democratic institutions.
Lebanon also had a civil war before facing a complex political diversity. This emphasizes that the change of regime, although necessary, is not enough to guarantee peace and prosperity. The lesson here for Syria could be that the transition to peace requires a sincere commitment to reconciliation – and not simply reshuffles within the government.
### Conclusion: a future to write
The new Syrian government represents a glimmer of hope, but it must avoid sinking into the trapezius of nostalgia and empty promises. The real changes require a realistic commitment and an unshakable will to work with all the stakeholders, including those which have hitherto been marginalized. The promises of peace, inclusion, and reform must be transformed into concrete actions on the ground.
International observers, in particular those in the United States and other Western powers, must keep a vigilant eye on the evolution of this new administration. The international community must encourage an inclusive dialogue, while emphasizing the fact that the political temperature in Syria cannot be raised by speeches, but only by ardent truths anchored in the daily reality of the Syrian people.
Fatshimetrie.org will continue to follow these crucial developments, hoping that Syria will finally find the path of peace, not only by political agreements, but also by real social and economic reconciliation.