** Congolese cobalt: a calculated suspicion or a survival strategy? **
On February 22, 2025, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) crossed a delicate milestone by deciding to temporarily suspend Cobalt export for a period of four months. This decision, although praised by some as a realistic strategy to counter overabundance on the world market, quickly raised questions about its real scope and long -term implications for the country and its mining sector.
** A historic decision in a changing market **
The DRC, the world’s leading producer of cobalt, is at a crossroads. This metal, vital in the manufacture of batteries for a multitude of devices, notably electric, has undergone a dizzying fall in its request due to the advent of alternative technologies. The nickel and manganese gain ground, questioning the traditional domination of cobalt in the battery industry. The government measure not only aims to stabilize prices by limiting the supply, but it is part of a global context of restructuring of the strategic materials market.
** Understand the mechanisms of the global market **
To grasp the magnitude and implications of this decision, it is essential to consider the dynamics of the world cobalt market. The DRC has almost 70 % of the known reserves of Cobalt, and its export strategy impacts not only local actors, but also the world economy. In 2024, the Cobalt price stagnated around 30,000 dollars per tonne, a drop of 50 % compared to its peak in 2021. This tumble is awarded to an overabundance of offers from not only from the DRC, but also other countries such as Zambia and Australia, which increase their production.
Faced with this, the suspension strategy seems to respond to a logic of supplying the offer to be able to straighten prices. However, can this maneuver really suffice? Historically, attempts to control prices through measures like these have often been faced with failures when market players have chosen to circumvent restrictions to take advantage of pricing opportunities.
** The reality of the field: the craft sector in danger **
One of the points often neglected in speeches around cobalt is the role of the craft sector, which represents between 15 to 20 % of total production. For years, these minors have faced precarious working conditions and often derisory prices. The decision to suspend the export would be theoretically beneficial for them, as it could stabilize the market and improve the conditions of sale. However, the question remains whether this measure will be effectively implemented to really protect the interests of craft minors.
Civil society, through organizations like that led by Mrs. Alphonsine Tshilefe, is optimistic but underlines the urgent need for stronger regulation for crafts to benefit from price increases. Such regulation should not be a simple reaction to the suspension of exports, but a set of integrated measures supporting the rights of craftsmen while raising them within the market rather than marginalizing them.
** An economic dependence constrained by partnerships **
The Congolese government’s approach must also be questioned in the context of the structural dependence of the DRC towards foreign partners, in particular Chinese companies who dominate the purchase and export of Cobalt. The criticism formulated by Franck Fwamba on surplus production at a time of low request reveals an disconcerting truth: the DRC undergoes pressures linked to its trade agreements. Suspending export could give the DRC a semblance of control, but if international agreements and regional cooperation are not revised, this strategy could quickly turn against it.
** An insufficient duration strategy? **
The questions raised by experts like Madame Tshilefe and Professor Godé Mpoyi remind us that the duration of the suspension, fixed at four months, may not be sufficient to draw substantial benefits. How long does it really take to readjust a global market? In addition, without close coordination with other producing countries and effective strategic planning, the DRC risks losing ground in the face of its competitors, даже those who are less rich in resources.
** Conclusion: a long -term dividend? **
In summary, the suspension of cobalt exports by the DRC offers an opportunity to rethink not only its approach to strategic natural resources but also its long -term economic vision. The success of this strategy will depend on careful execution and long -term commitment to regulate the sector while taking into account the interests of artisan producers, which are often left behind. Will this measure be a springboard to a new economic management model or a simple response to a crisis in price increase? Time will tell us, but it is crucial for the DRC to learn from its past errors in order to forge a more sustainable future in the complex world of the resource market.