How can the recent rapprochement between Ethiopia and Somalia redefine the stability in Horn of Africa?

### Flambel diplomacy: Ethiopia and Somalia trace a new road

On February 27, Ethiopian President Abiy Ahmed paid a decisive visit to Mogadiscio, marking a significant step in the rapprochement between Ethiopia and Somalia, long prey to tensions. After a tumultuous year, characterized by territorial disputes and historical rivalries, this meeting embodies a daring will of transformation. By signing a new collaboration agreement, the two nations aim to create a "shared vision for regional stability and prosperity", paving the way for essential economic cooperation, in particular by the access of Ethiopians to Somali ports, a strategic issue at a time when foreign influence is increasing. However, the road to a common future remains strewn with pitfalls, posing challenges in terms of inclusive security and dialogue. While the two countries are starting this new diplomatic era, their ability to overcome obstacles will be crucial to shape a peaceful and prosperous future in the horn of Africa.
### The awakening of a new diplomatic era between Ethiopia and Somalia: an unexpected alliance

In the vast political panorama of the Horn of Africa, the news of February 27 where the Ethiopian president Abiy Ahmed made a flash visit to Mogadishu, marks a crucial stage in the restoration of relations between Ethiopia and Somalia. After a year of intense tensions due to territorial disputes, this visit is not only in a context of strategic rapprochement, but also as an innovative approach to the challenges of the region.

#### Historical and diplomatic context

To grasp the scope of this meeting, it is imperative to return to the chaotic relationships that have marked the interactions between Addis Ababa and Mogadishu. Tensions culminated last year with the signing of a memorandum of understanding concerning Ethiopian access to the sea via Somaliland, a controversial measure perceived as an attack on Somali sovereignty. This context has fed years of rivalry, exacerbated by complex geopolitical issues, such as the presence of terrorist organizations like Al-Shabaab and the political instability which reigns in Somalia.

The reconciliation initiated in December 2023 in Ankara, where the two nations signed a collaboration agreement, made it possible to redefine the terms of their cooperation. The common press release underlines the fact that Ethiopia and Somalia now share a “shared vision for stability and regional prosperity”. This sentence, although diplomatic, resonates as a call for regional solidarity in a context where the impacts of the climate, food insecurity and internal conflicts weigh heavily on their respective economies.

#### A counterweight strategy

The event of February 27, although being a simple diplomatic visit, reveals a counterweight strategy to the rise of third countries in the region, such as Turkey and the United Arab Emirates, whose influence increases. The two leaders not only addressed economic and security issues, but they also alluded to the wider geopolitical implications linked to countries like China and the United States which are increasingly involved in this part of the world.

Analyzing this dynamic, we can see a movement towards further integration within the region of the horn of Africa, which could potentially serve as counterweight to Western influence while achieving strategic economic objectives. The will of Ethiopia to access Somali ports, in particular that of Berbera, is not simply a matter of trade, but a strategic necessity.

#### An extended collaboration

Speaking of economic interests, the press release also mentions the ease of the passage of Ethiopian goods through Somali ports. This development could transform the country’s economic map, which has long suffered from dependence on foreign ports. Indeed, statistics show that almost 95 % of imports from Ethiopia go through the wearing of Addis Ababa, making the country vulnerable to geopolitical fluctuations and crises.

Such an action, if it is implemented effectively, could considerably reduce transport times and associated costs. In addition, this cooperation could open the way to broader partnerships in the field of infrastructure, Kenya having recently invested in projects aimed at connecting these savings.

#### A reflection on the future

However, despite these encouraging developments, the road in front of Ethiopia and Somalia is strewn with pitfalls. Security issues, including the fight against Al-Shabaab, will have to be addressed in a concerted manner. Statistics show a resurgence of terrorist attacks in certain regions, which complicates stabilization efforts and could threaten this new dynamic.

It is also crucial to approach the concerns of local communities, which have often been victims of political decisions taken by their leaders. An inclusive dialogue involving the various actors, including civil society groups, could offer a salutary alternative and avoid errors from the past.

### Conclusion

Thus, Abiy Ahmed’s visit to Mogadishu represents more than a simple diplomatic gesture: it is the symbol of a renewed will to build a common future. In an increasingly interconnected world, where local and global issues are intertwined, Ethiopia and Somalia could not only redefine their bilateral relations, but also influence the geopolitical landscape of the horn of Africa, stimulating a region often perceived as marked by discord. The future of this relationship, based on economic cooperation and shared security, remains to be written, but the first pages were shot.

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