Title: The setbacks of a power: Donald Trump’s economic strategy and its global consequences
At the threshold of his second mandate, Donald Trump, an emblematic figure of American populism, seems to confront realities that his political speech has often ignored. Indeed, intimidation on the international scene, which characterized its first presidency, now reveals disturbing cracks. The recent political decisions, ranging from the withdrawal of the Paris Agreement to new tensions with business partners, cause swirls on the markets and a global re-evaluation of the role of the United States on the international scene.
### intimidation as a strategy: an outdated model?
First of all, it is crucial to look at the very nature of the strategy used by Trump. The rhetoric of “America First” had a resounding echo with its electorate, nourishing a feeling of sovereignty which has often resulted in an aggressive approach to the rival economic powers. However, this policy turned out to be a real trap. The examples of Canada and Mexico, which united to respond to the increases in American customs tariffs, illustrate how America can no longer impose itself unilaterally in a multipolar world. In essence, Trump seems to realize, too late, that each action leads to a reaction.
### The “chief merchant” model: flaws and risks
Compared to a businessman in a competitive environment, Trump’s doctrine may seem attractive, but it is based on a simplistic vision of international relations. By urging his partners to submit rather than collaborating, he mimics economic mechanisms which, on a global scale, are obsolete. To illustrate this point, a report by the World Trade Organization (WTO) highlights that commercial wars, such as that initiated by the American president, often destroy more value than they create. Recent data show that trade relations between the United States and its neighbors have experienced significant reductions, with a loss of several billion dollars in trade.
### Late awareness: the shock of interdependence
The moment when Donald Trump seems to be aware of global economic interdependence is both tragic and revealing. For a country that boasted of its economic power, the inability to anticipate chain repercussions on supply chains and the job market is worrying. A World Bank report demonstrates that, in a context of trade war, jobs in the exporting sectors are affected in a disproportionate way, generating massive losses in already vulnerable regions.
In addition, the long-term dynamic of trade relations shows that the United States, despite its power, greatly depend on exports to support its economy. According to statistics compiled by the United States economic analysis office, almost 25% of jobs in the export sectors are in danger when pricing is imposed. This reversal of perspective of a dominant nation to a vulnerable nation raises questions about the future of American economic policy under Trump.
### The return of pragmatism: an opportunity for the world
Faced with this series of failures in terms of foreign policy, and especially during the management of crises like that of Gaza, a reflection is essential: what if the purpose of this political turbulence was the emergence of pragmatic diplomacy? The international community, starting with countries like Germany or France, may well take this opportunity to redirect discussions around multilateral cooperation rather than unilateral actions.
### Conclusion: to a new world paradigm?
Ultimately, the possible return to the fundamentals of international trade could constitute the real test of Trump’s leadership during his second term. As the world evolves towards reinforced multilateralism, the United States must realize that a model based on intimidation and domination does not find its place in an environment where cooperation has become essential to the economic survival.
Perhaps it is time for Trump to transform his image of an economic “Rambo” into a leader capable of integrating the United States into a network of balanced partnerships, where each actor recognizes both his strengths and vulnerabilities. History reminds us of this: the great powers face great responsibilities, and the road to global economic serenity is paved with cooperation, not intimidation. Fatshimetrie.org will closely follow the evolution of events, looking for a better understanding of the issues that take shape on the international scene.