In the dynamic world of geology and water resources, Abbas Sharaqi stands out as a prominent figure, bringing his invaluable expertise to the study of geological phenomena and impacts on water resources. Recently, this renowned professor confirmed that an earthquake with a magnitude of 4.5 occurred in the Ethiopian Rift Valley. It occurred on Thursday at 18:28 Cairo time, at a depth of 10 km, 150 km east of Addis Ababa and 600 km from the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).
This earthquake is the third event of the week, preceded by two other earthquakes on December 21 and 23, with a magnitude of 4.4 and 4.6 respectively, also in the same area. Ethiopia and its surrounding areas have been hit by a total of 41 earthquakes this year, with a magnitude of 4 or greater. The strongest was a magnitude 5.2 on October 6, marking a peak in seismic activity in the past ten years. Before the inauguration of the GERD filling in 2020, the country recorded an average of 5 tremors per year. In 2023, this figure has reached 38 earthquakes.
The GERD currently contains 60 billion cubic meters of water, exerting considerable pressure on Ethiopia’s geologically fragile crust, due to the presence of the African Rift that divides the country in two. This region is known to be one of the most prone to seismic and volcanic activity in Africa.
Although recent earthquakes have had only a low to moderate impact on the GERD due to their distance of 600 km or their low magnitude, Abbas Sharaqi highlights the potential risk of a stronger and closer earthquake. In May 2023, an earthquake occurred only 100 km from the dam, although its magnitude was 4.4.
The recurrence of more powerful earthquakes near the GERD could have significant repercussions, especially after its complete filling, transforming it into a potential “explosive water bomb”. This situation does not mean an immediate explosion, but the risk increases during the rainy season (July-September).
In a context where seismic tremors can affect a structure as crucial as the GERD, it is imperative to carefully analyze the risks and take adequate preventive measures to ensure the stability and safety of this essential structure for Ethiopia and the region. Abbas Sharaqi continues to play a vital role in raising awareness of these issues and contributing to a better understanding of the interactions between geology, water and human activities.