Tensions within the West African regional organization, ECOWAS, have reached a boiling point with the announcement of an exit timetable for three nations affected by coups. After nearly a year of mediation efforts to prevent a significant fracture within the bloc, Omar Touray, president of the ECOWAS Commission, declared that the transition period would run from January 29, 2025 to July 29, 2025, while leaving the door open for the three countries concerned during this period.
At the opening of the summit, Touray expressed regret at the decision, noting that disagreements ran deep. In January, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger announced their intention to withdraw from ECOWAS, citing the bloc’s sanctions and its failure to address their persistent security challenges.
ECOWAS membership offers significant benefits, such as the free movement of people between member states, and it remains unclear how this will be affected once the three nations leave the organization.
In a historic move for the nearly 50-year-old bloc, the military governments of Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso have firmly rejected ECOWAS’s attempts to persuade them to reconsider their departure, exploring the possibility of issuing their own travel documents and forming a separate alliance.
The one-year notice period for their withdrawal is set to conclude as scheduled, drawing praise from Touray for the dedication of the bloc’s envoys in their efforts to resolve the crisis.
Bola Tinubu, President of Nigeria and ECOWAS Chair, stressed that global and regional challenges are testing the bloc’s spirit of collaboration. He stressed the need to remain focused on their primary duty, which is to protect citizens and foster an environment conducive to their development.
A major implication of ECOWAS membership is the ability to travel freely between member states, and it remains unclear how this will be affected by the three countries’ departure from the bloc. Asked about the potential consequences in July, the ECOWAS Commission president noted that “leaving an agreement […] that is about free trade and the free movement of people carries the risk of losing these benefits.”
In a joint statement, the three nations said that while their territories will remain accessible without a visa to other West African citizens, they reserve the right to refuse entry to any ECOWAS national deemed an inadmissible immigrant.
Since its creation in 1975, ECOWAS has been the primary political authority in West Africa, and this division represents its most significant challenge to date, according to Babacar Ndiaye, a senior fellow at the Timbuktu Institute for Peace Studies in Senegal.
The likelihood of ECOWAS successfully reintegrating the three countries is low, mainly because the bloc seeks a rapid return to democratic governance, which the military juntas have not promised to uphold, said Mucahid Durmaz, a senior analyst at Verisk Maplecroft.
Allowing the juntas to retain power “could lead to further regional fragmentation,” while recognizing them as legitimate authorities would mean “a serious deviation from ECOWAS’s founding principles,” Durmaz added, noting that the bloc has failed to effectively manage the situation.
Durmaz noted that the bloc’s varied reactions to coups in the region suggest that its position is influenced more by the political aspirations of its member states than by its core mission of promoting democratic governance.