Havana, Cuba – The stakes are rising for Cuba’s already-stressed economy. After more than 60 years of U.S. economic sanctions and government missteps, a new threat is looming on the horizon.
The possible nomination of Marco Rubio, a senator known for his hardline policies toward Cuba, as secretary of state in Donald Trump’s administration could spell disaster for Cuba’s already struggling economy.
The son of Cuban exiles, Rubio has always made fighting the Cuban regime one of his political priorities. If his confirmation is widely anticipated, Rubio could tighten the U.S. trade embargo on Cuba and push the island to a breaking point.
According to Peter Kornbluh, co-author of “Back Channel to Cuba: The Hidden History of Secret Negotiations Between Washington and Havana,” the nomination could be the final straw for Cuba: “Marco Rubio has reached the pinnacle of American power, and he’s going to use it to bolster his reputation as a hard-line extremist toward Cuba.”
While the new secretary of state will have pressing international challenges to address, such as the conflict in Ukraine, tensions in the Middle East, and China’s growing influence in Latin America, Cuba has always been a central focus for Rubio.
Miami, known for being home to many Cuban exiles, has long been called the only U.S. city with its own foreign policy because of its close ties to Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua.
As such, Rubio’s possible nomination as secretary of state raises concerns about the future of U.S.-Cuba relations. As the top U.S. diplomat, Rubio could tighten economic sanctions on Cuba, increase financial support for dissidents and pro-democracy programs, and further restrict travel from the United States to the island.
Under the Biden administration, steps were taken to ease restrictions on flights to Cuba, online payments to Cuban entrepreneurs, and travel by U.S. citizens to the island. However, Rubio has consistently opposed American travel to Cuba, arguing that it would strengthen the Cuban government.
The potential impact of Rubio’s nomination on companies that organize tours to Cuba remains unclear, but concern is palpable among industry players.
Marco Rubio has forged his political career around the issue of Cuba, advocating for the end of a regime he considers tyrannical and oppressive. His closeness to Miami’s Cuban-American community has deeply shaped his vision of U.S. foreign policy.
As secretary of state, Rubio could exert more direct pressure on the Cuban government and its allies. Its ability to influence countries like Mexico, which supports Cuba economically, could strain regional relations.
However, this policy of increased sanctions risks backfiring on the United States, leaving a failed state just 90 miles from its shores. According to Ricardo Herrero, executive director of the Cuba Study Group, the lack of plans to deal with a possible Cuban collapse raises questions about the long-term consequences of such actions.
In sum, Marco Rubio’s appointment as Secretary of State could usher in a new era in U.S.-Cuba relations, with potentially devastating consequences for the island and its people. Diplomacy between the two countries is fraught with tension, and Cuba’s future remains uncertain under the threat of a more aggressive U.S. foreign policy.