Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te’s recent visit to Hawaii may seem low-key at first glance, with no official reception in the United States or bombastic speeches. But the implications of the visit go far beyond wreaths and banquets. En route to the Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, and Palau—three of Taiwan’s remaining diplomatic allies—Lai used his time to highlight the island’s diplomatic resilience in the face of increasing pressure from Beijing. The visit also comes at a time when Taiwan is grappling with an upcoming leadership change at the White House.
Although called an unofficial transit, the trip has attracted attention, particularly from China, which has condemned Lai’s visit and is expected to respond with military exercises near Taiwan. More than just a stopover, the visit reaffirmed Taiwan’s partnerships with the United States and other democracies—alliances that Beijing actively seeks to undermine.
China’s reaction to Lai’s visit has been predictably sharp. A spokesperson for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office called it a “provocative act” and said efforts to seek Taiwanese independence “are doomed to failure.” Beijing has strongly condemned the United States’ alleged support for Taiwanese separatists.
These responses from China are not unusual, according to Kolas Yotaka, a former spokeswoman for Lai and his predecessor Tsai Ing-wen. She points out that China’s oppression of Taiwan is intensifying and now extends to democratic institutions around the world. The attack on Taiwan is part of China’s broader political agenda.
Taiwanese security agencies anticipate that Beijing, which claims the island as Chinese territory, could use Lai’s visit to launch military exercises near Taiwan. These maneuvers, often accompanied by propaganda campaigns, are a familiar tactic for Beijing to assert its power after high-level interactions between Taiwan and the United States.
Lai’s trip to Hawaii comes at a crucial time for U.S.-Taiwan relations. As the United States prepares for a second term under Donald Trump, Taiwan’s leaders face significant uncertainties. Despite increased arms sales to Taiwan during Trump’s first term, his recent comments suggesting that Taiwan should “pay for its defense” suggest a more transactional approach.
Ahead of his departure, Lai emphasized shared democratic values in global partnerships. He stressed the importance of working with allies to show that Taiwan is not only a model of democracy but also a vital force for global peace and stability.
Some critics question the value of Taiwan’s relationships with smaller Pacific states, but Kolas disagrees. She emphasizes that these relationships are not merely symbolic, but play a critical role in Taiwan’s security.
Lai’s journey across the Pacific, including her significant stop in Hawaii, highlights Taiwan’s ongoing struggle for recognition and sovereignty as a frontline democracy facing authoritarian pressure.
In the face of mounting Chinese pressure and shifts in the global balance of power, Taiwan’s future will depend on its ability to adapt, innovate, and assemble allies. Lai’s move across the Pacific is an attempt to do just that, a calculated move in a complex and high-stakes geopolitical game.
CNN contributed to this report, and Eric Cheung’s expert analysis informed this analysis.