In today’s political and economic world, the relationship between the United States and China occupies a central place. The election of President-elect Donald Trump, and especially his proposed cabinet slate filled with so-called “China hawks,” has attracted the attention of many analysts. These cabinet members have clearly expressed their desire to confront China, whether on the economic or security front.
While some American politicians have not hesitated to call China an “existential threat” or to advocate radical measures to counter its influence, some observers believe that China may be better prepared this time around to face a more confrontational approach from the United States. Indeed, Beijing has reportedly already experienced the transactional will of President Trump and the ideological figures around him, and may seek to establish informal channels of communication through more China-friendly interlocutors, such as Elon Musk.
While the prospect of a deterioration in relations under Trump seems plausible, some Chinese thinkers believe the president-elect may still be inclined to strike a deal with China, and even be more flexible than his cabinet choices suggest. While Trump appears more preoccupied with the economic challenge posed by China, his team members, including those at the National Security Council and the Departments of State and Defense, appear more focused on military and security issues.
The composition of Trump’s team, with figures such as National Security Advisor Rep. Mike Waltz and Secretary of State-designate Sen. Marco Rubio, reinforces the perception of a hard line on China. However, it is important for Beijing to distinguish between the more hard-line advisers and President-elect Trump’s real intentions.
Furthermore, in this context of rising tensions, the presence of Elon Musk appears to be a crucial factor. His involvement in China’s business and interactions with Chinese officials could play a role as a mediator and facilitator of dialogues between the two powers. Musk, as an influential figure and a renowned entrepreneur, could help maintain a “win-win” economic relationship between the United States and China.
However, it remains to be seen whether Elon Musk would be willing to actively engage in foreign policy, or whether his interactions will be limited to issues of government effectiveness. Despite the uncertainty about his true impact on bilateral relations, it is clear that China is preparing for turbulent times. Trump’s threat of 60% tariffs could have major repercussions on the already fragile Chinese economy, leading to a reduction in its growth rate.
In conclusion, the next few years are shaping up to be critical for U.S.-China relations, and the dynamics between the political and economic actors in both countries promise to be complex. There is uncertainty about the direction of the relationship, but it is clear that the stakes are high and that diplomacy and cooperation remain essential to ensure regional and global stability.