Since Donald Trump’s reelection, pro-Palestinian Democratic activists have felt a bitter vindication. Led by the National Uncommitted Movement, they spent months pushing and pleading with the Biden administration to reduce its support for Israel’s war in Gaza. Their warnings were clear and direct: Democrats not only risked losing the support of Arab American and Muslim voters in Michigan, but the conflict—and the continued flow of military aid to the Israeli government—risked reducing enthusiasm among the coalition of young, mostly progressive voters who were critical to Joe Biden’s 2020 victory. James Zogby, co-founder of the Arab American Institute and a Democratic National Committee member for more than 30 years, points out: “We told them that the impact of Gaza would be greater than just the Arab community. That’s why voter turnout was lower in college areas and among young black voters.” He adds: “In the polling that we’ve done over the last year, we’ve seen its impact. And it’s certainly had an impact on my community.”
Early analysis of the election suggests that those concerns were well-founded and reflect a broader divide between party leaders and the Democratic activist base. Arab Americans, as well as Latino and black men, all leaned toward Trump in the final tally. The president-elect’s vote share improved almost everywhere, from the red states he’s dominated for nearly a decade to traditionally liberal electorates, where Democrats either abstained or, to a lesser extent, backed third-party candidates.
Lexis Zeidan, co-founder of the National Uncommitted Movement, criticized Harris, saying, “While Kamala Harris ignored communities, especially Arab Muslim communities here in Dearborn, Trump went to these communities, made promises, and capitalized on these vulnerable emotions by telling them what they wanted to hear.”
Dearborn, Michigan, is home to the largest Arab-American population in the country. In the election results, her swing away from the top of the Democratic ticket surprised even the most passionate activists. Four years after Biden dominated there, Trump won 42 percent of the vote, a plurality. Green Party candidate Jill Stein came close to 20 percent. Harris fell somewhere in the middle, with 36 percent. According to national exit polls, more than 6 in 10 Muslim voters voted for the Democrat—a clear majority, but a sharp decline from past election cycles.
Zeidan and other allies in the movement also highlighted Harris’ disappointments with other minority voters who have traditionally voted heavily for Democrats..
Wa’el Alzayat, CEO of the American Muslim advocacy organization Emgage, estimates that Muslim support for Harris could have reached as high as 90% if she had clearly signaled her intention to break with Biden’s policies in the region. Despite some reluctance among its members, Emgage ultimately endorsed Harris, arguing that “pursuing an anti-war agenda was more likely under a Democratic administration.”
Alzayat’s fears were confirmed by Trump’s early appointments. He says: “What kind of peace and freedom will Palestinians have under Mike Huckabee and Tulsi Gabbard? My goodness. And Matt Gaetz. What rights will pro-Palestinian students have?” He points to Trump’s controversial picks for ambassador to Israel, director of national intelligence and attorney general, respectively.
Still, that fear and frustration did not breed guilt among activists and voters interviewed by CNN over the past three days. They unanimously rejected any suggestion that their work was responsible for Harris’ failure.
Waleed Shahid, a spokesman and strategist for Uncommitted, said, “I have no regrets. We did our best to connect the campaign and the party with the community. We tried to help the campaign change its policy position, by proposing something that was in the mutual interest of the community and the party.”
Uncommitted notably campaigned at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago this summer to allow a Palestinian-American speaker to address the party. After weeks of discussion, on the final night of the gathering, party officials informed Uncommitted leaders that it would not be possible.
Michigan Democrats, led by state party chairwoman Lavora Barnes, immediately disagreed — first in a brief interview with CNN and then in a statement to reporters.
These complex electoral dynamics underscore the importance of understanding and addressing the specific concerns of different communities for political parties. Foreign policy, particularly as it relates to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, continues to play a crucial role in electoral choices and in candidates’ ability to mobilize diverse support.