**South Africa’s Agricultural Employment Renewal for 2024-25**
South African agriculture is recovering from a difficult period marked by the mid-year drought in 2023-24, which resulted in poor grain and oilseed harvests. The livestock industry has also been affected by animal diseases. These events have weighed on the sector’s performance in recent quarters and are likely to lead to a contraction in its results this year.
Fortunately, we are seeing an improvement as we enter the 2024-25 season, which began last month. Rainfall prospects are positive, supporting crop production and the recovery of pasture for farmers. Animal disease control is also progressing, with most provinces now free of foot-and-mouth disease. This will support red meat exports. The poultry industry, which has also suffered from avian influenza, is recovering. These are all positive signs for improved agricultural performance in 2025.
Another crucial indicator to highlight in the sector is employment. Employment numbers are also recovering in the agricultural sector. For example, recent data from Statistics South Africa shows that primary agricultural employment increased by 4% from the previous quarter, reaching 935 000 jobs in the third quarter of 2024.
However, from an annual perspective, the performance is weak, down 2% year-on-year. Despite this, primary agricultural employment of 935 000 people is well above long-term employment levels of 799 000. The weak annual performance reflects the difficult summer season we are leaving behind.
Some sub-sectors are recording quarterly employment increases, including livestock, horticulture, game hunting and organic fertilizer production. In contrast, forestry and aquaculture recorded job losses during the second quarter of the year.
The Western Cape, Northern Cape, Eastern Cape, North West, Gauteng and Limpopo recorded significant job gains during the quarter. The livestock and horticulture industry was able to strengthen employment prospects in these provinces.
Meanwhile, the Free State, KwaZulu-Natal and Mpumalanga recorded job losses during the second quarter of the year. The dominant types of agricultural activities in these provinces partly explain the job losses, particularly in the Free State, mainly the grains and oilseeds growing region.
Looking towards 2025, if the agricultural sector improves overall, agricultural employment conditions will also show a more robust recovery.
The small contraction in annual employment this year is not necessarily structural, but reflects the difficult production conditions that farmers have faced in recent months. The fact that we are already seeing a quarterly recovery in employment is evidence of the prospects for a better and potentially faster recovery in agricultural employment in 2025.
We are already starting to receive La Niña rains and planting of summer crops is underway in various parts of South Africa. Pasture recovery will take time, but with the possibility of La Niña extending into February 2025, South Africa should receive excellent rains for much of the season.
The rains will also help improve dam levels, which are essential for irrigation. All of South Africa’s horticultural production – fruit and vegetables – is produced under irrigation. In addition, about a third of field crops are produced under irrigation. Therefore, improving dam levels will benefit agricultural production and jobs.
Beyond these short-term events, the agricultural sector remains crucial for job creation in rural communities.
However, the sector needs to be on a growth path to maintain current jobs and create new employment opportunities. In the short term, we identify various constraining factors that require attention from policy makers. These include addressing port inefficiencies.
The sector also faces challenges of inadequate rail and road infrastructure as well as deteriorating municipal service delivery. This is an area that the Government of National Unity needs to focus on, in addition to addressing the increasing incidents of crime in some parts of the country.
Wandile Sihlobo is the Chief Economist at the Agricultural Chamber of Commerce of South Africa and a Senior Research Fellow in the Department of Agricultural Economics at Stellenbosch University. His latest book is called “A Country of Two Agricultures”.