At the heart of global debates and diplomatic challenges, world leaders are gathering for two major summits in South America in the coming days. Uncertainty over Donald Trump’s imminent return to the White House looms like a dark cloud, suggesting significant repercussions.
As many countries question the impact of Trump’s “America First” mantra on the global economy and ongoing conflicts in Europe and the Middle East, China is bracing for tense relations with the United States ahead. However, for Chinese leader Xi Jinping, the upcoming meetings offer an opportunity after Trump’s election victory to advance Beijing’s goals: driving a wedge between the United States and its allies and presenting China as an alternative, stable leader.
At the APEC summit of 21 Asia-Pacific economies in Peru this week, followed by a G20 meeting of the world’s leading economies in Brazil next week, Beijing’s ability to make its case could be crucial to China weathering the coming storm.
During his first term, Trump launched a trade and technology war with China, recasting the rising power as a U.S. rival—a trajectory largely followed by his successor Joe Biden, who has further irritated Beijing by drawing U.S. allies and partners into his China policy.
With the possibility of a second Trump term that could bring heavier tariffs and uncertainty, Xi and his delegation will carefully adjust their diplomacy at both meetings.
President Biden, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese are among the leaders also expected to attend both summits, while Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will attend the G20.
“It makes sense for Chinese officials to use these major events to try to influence some of the current international narratives,” said Li Mingjiang, an associate professor of international relations at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore. “The clock is ticking fast to January 2025.”
As questions about whether tensions between the United States and China could escalate, Beijing sees good relations with a wide range of other countries—and unfettered access to their markets—as essential to protecting its economy, especially as it grapples with slowing growth, weak consumer demand and high unemployment at home.
In Beijing’s eyes, the global uncertainty surrounding Trump creates an opportunity to undermine what, under Biden, had been growing coordination between the United States and its allies in trade, security, and other areas to counter the perceived threat from China.
Xi and another close U.S. ally, Indian leader Modi, met for their first formal bilateral meeting in five years in October after reaching an agreement on military disengagement along their disputed lines.
Amid geopolitical uncertainty and leadership changes, Beijing’s prevarications and communications strategies at these summits are of critical importance to the future of international relations and global trade. These meetings could not only shape the trajectory of Sino-U.S. relations but also influence major strategic alignments around the world.