This spring, in the commune of Amer Soufflia in Morocco, the wheat has grown and is ready to be harvested. The golden fields are beautiful, but the harvest is looking disappointing. Harvest has begun and farmers are already certain that the yield will be much lower than they had hoped.
A severe drought has led to a drop in yield compared to previous years. Al Housni Belhoussni, a smallholder farmer, says: “In the past, we had an abundance, a lot of wheat. But in the last seven or eight years, the harvest has been very low because of the drought. This year, the harvest is much lower than last year. Last year was okay, but this year, the harvest is very low.”
In some areas, the water shortage has been so severe that farmers have not even considered it worth cultivating their land. Kenitra province has been spared the worst conditions, allowing farmers to continue growing wheat. However, this activity is becoming less and less viable.
Priss Mamma, another small farmer, notes that “agricultural yield has dropped a lot. Today, one hectare of land does not give us 10 bags. What is happening? In the past, we had 40, 50 or even 60 bags of wheat, but today, the harvest is very low.”
Farmers navigate between late rains, reduced precipitation and significant variations between minimum and maximum temperatures during the growing season. All these factors disrupt the agricultural sector.
This harvest comes from a large modern farm operated by Mohamed Krata. However, even the latest strategies and techniques cannot mitigate the effects of the harsh climate.
Abdelkrim Naaman, president of Nalsiya, an NGO specializing in development, environment and social welfare, attributes this situation to climate change. He says that “recently, Morocco has been suffering from the disastrous consequences of droughts and climate change, as well as poor rainfall.”
Krata follows advice but does not understand the root causes of the problems his sector faces. He says: “We farmers work according to the weather conditions and follow the instructions we receive from the Ministry of Agriculture. The ministry tells us what diseases we have to fight, but questions about climate change are only known to scientists who are experts in this field.”
Rachid Benali, president of the Confédération agricole et rurale pour le développement (COMADER), an official organization that represents Moroccan farmers in all sectors, argues that the main threat to the kingdom’s agricultural sector is not drought, but climate change. He explains that “Morocco has experienced droughts in the past. In some cases, we have had droughts that lasted more than ten years. The problem we are facing now is mainly climate change, which is radical. We can feel. The temperatures are very high in general, especially the temperature peaks We can have very high temperatures in December, which is abnormal We can also have low temperatures in March or even in May. “There is climate change. In the past we had hailstorms every ten years. Now we can have up to three or four a year.”
This year, the Ministry of Agriculture estimates that the wheat harvest in Morocco will reach around 31.2 million quintals, a drastic drop of 43% compared to the previous campaign. The last harvest was 55.1 million quintals, which was already considered low.
Additionally, the area sown to major cereals declined by 33%, from 3.67 million hectares to just 2.47 million hectares. This will have a huge impact on the country’s economy, according to Driss Aissaoui, an analyst and former member of the Moroccan Ministry of Agriculture.
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations ranks Morocco sixth among the top ten global wheat importers this year. According to the FAO, imports could increase by 19% to reach 7.5 million tonnes in 2024.
Statistics from the National Federation of Cereal and Pulguity Traders show that Morocco has been active in the international wheat market during the first half of this year, importing nearly 2.5 million tonnes of common wheat between January and June, with France remaining the largest supplier, followed by Germany, Russia and Ukraine.