South Africa’s 2023 poll has proven to be a political juggle, with predictions and polls showing the African National Congress (ANC) in trouble. The upcoming elections, as well as the post-election period, will require all the support the party can get.
It is very likely that the ANC will lose its majority in the National Assembly after the May 29 vote. Parliament, once a shadow theater of the real center of power at Luthuli House, will suddenly return to center stage.
The question then is: what will happen next? To a large extent, the future will be determined by how far the ANC falls below 50%.
The lower it is, the better it will be according to the opposition parties. However, the larger this gap, the more expectant the financial markets could be. The further the ANC falls below 50%, the more possibilities there will be to form a multi-party government. And of course, the more vulnerable the president will be to the whims of change which always lurks within the ANC itself, ready to seize the slightest opportunity for weakness.
So change could finally be upon us in South Africa. But will the grass be greener on the other side?
In the 2021 municipal elections, the ANC fell to just 45.6% of the vote at the municipal level. Although local elections are not always a perfect predictor of general election results due to specific factors and the presence of local parties, they are the most recent and reliable survey of the South African electorate.
Since then, the ANC’s electoral situation has not improved and the emergence of the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party appears to jeopardize its hopes of winning more than 50% of the vote.
While the MK party also attacks the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) as much as the ANC, it is likely to capture a few percentage points that the ANC cannot afford to lose. lose.
Since the emergence of the MK party, opinion polls have placed the ANC in a range of high 30% to low 40%. South Africa is a notoriously difficult country to survey. Obtaining a sufficient and representative sample is an almost impossible task, as is verifying whether respondents are actually registered voters.
The poll numbers are not encouraging for the ANC. However, historically, polls in South Africa tend to underestimate support for the ANC, especially when proper turnout modeling is taken into account.
Thus, our analysis suggests that the ANC is more likely to achieve a result in the mid to high 40%. A majority of 50% cannot therefore be excluded.
The precise figure on which the ANC will land will be crucial for the course of events.
A result of more than 47% would mean that the ANC should be able to form a relatively easy coalition with one or more smaller parties, resulting in something that would be little different from the status quo. Although the party might not admit it now, it would probably be an acceptable outcome from the ANC’s point of view. President Cyril Ramaphosa could claim victory especially if the final result is better than the 2021 municipal elections.
A result between 45% and 47% – which we currently hold as our “baseline scenario” – makes the situation a little more complex. A coalition between the ANC and smaller parties might still be possible in this scenario, but it would require a broader coalition between several smaller parties, making managing and maintaining stability more difficult.
Otherwise, the ANC could strike a deal with the IFP. The IFP is part of the opposition’s multi-party charter. IFP leader Velenkosini Hlabisa has often said he will not strike a deal with the ANC.
However, even if the charter were truly a cohesive political entity, loyalty within it will be tested as soon as the ballots are opened. Could the IFP be tempted to strike a deal that would see it support the ANC in national government, in return for the IFP taking over the presidency of the promisedly deadlocked KwaZulu-Natal provincial legislature?
We cannot exclude this possibility. The same logic applies to the Democratic Alliance (DA). Despite his alleged commitment to the charter, he has for some time been preparing his voters for the idea that the party might have to consider some sort of relationship with the ANC to “protect” South Africans from an apocalyptic coalition between the ANC and EFF.
However, for the “grand coalition” option (ANC and DA) to be considered, which many in the business community would like to see, our analysis suggests the ANC would need to fall below 45%.
In this scenario, neither the small parties nor the IFP alone could bring the ANC above 50%. This would then be a decisive moment for the ANC, steering it towards a choice between red and blue.
What would be the lesser evil from the ANC’s point of view?
This will depend on several factors. First of all, of course, it will be necessary to know whether the DA or the EFF are even prepared to reach an agreement with the ANC and, particularly in the latter case, whether they can present terms of cooperation on which it is possible to agree.
The EFF has tended in the past to overestimate its position during negotiations.