2024 elections: ANC expected to suffer losses in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng
The ANC is expected to lose its majority in both Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal in next year’s national and provincial elections, according to a new poll by the Brenthurst Foundation and strategy group SABI.
The poll indicates that the ruling party will get 43% of the vote nationally, if there is a high turnout, while the Democratic Alliance (DA) will get 25% and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) 16%.
In this scenario, the Multi Party Charter for South Africa (MPC), a coalition made up of the DA, the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) and other opposition parties, is expected to win 36% of the national vote.
The survey is based on a 15-minute telephone interview conducted with a sample of 1,500 registered voters between September 11 and October 3 of this year.
It was found that in a low turnout scenario, the ANC would obtain 45% of the vote nationally, the DA 27% and the MPC 37%.
Both scenarios predict the ANC emerging as the largest party, but losing its national majority and needing the EFF, its current coalition partner at local government level, to form a government.
In the key provinces of Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal, the survey also predicts significant losses for the ANC.
In Gauteng, 37% of respondents said they would vote for the ANC, the same number as those who said they would vote for the MPC parties, while 18% intend to vote for the ANC. ‘EFF.
In KwaZulu-Natal, 32% indicated support for the ANC, compared to 27% for the IFP, 19% for the DA and 15% for the EFF.
Collectively, the MPC parties received 46% of the vote, still less than the 50%+1 needed to govern the province, in which the EFF is expected to play an arbiter role in negotiations after the year’s elections next.
In the Western Cape province, the DA appears to be able to maintain its majority without needing help, with 56% of the vote ahead of the ANC’s 22%.
According to the poll, 80% of respondents intend to vote in the upcoming elections, with 83% of respondents citing crime, unemployment, power outages and corruption as their main concerns.
President Cyril Ramaphosa enjoys the highest approval rating (42%) but has lost ground (six points) since the previous poll in November 2022, while EFF leader Julius Malema’s approval rating has increased. increased by six points.
Ramaphosa’s party fared worse than him personally, with more people having a favorable view of the DA (37%) than the ruling party, which was only viewed positively by 36% of people interviewed in the survey.
The DA’s favorability increased by seven points, while the ANC’s favorability fell by three points during the same period.
The EFF follows closely in favorability with 29% and the IFP with 18%.
Nearly three-quarters of those surveyed (74%) say they favor coalition governance after the election, however, the idea is less appealing than last year for fewer people (79%).
A total of 56% of respondents believe the country can be effectively governed by a coalition, with 21% favoring an ANC-EFF coalition and the same number supporting the MPC, while 19% favor a coalition between the ANC and the DA.
Half of those surveyed do not believe that parties with fundamentally different ideals can work together to govern.
Nearly half (48%) are aware of the MPC, and 24% say they are more likely to vote for one of the parties involved in it. Most respondents support DA leader John Steenhuisen as the MPC presidential candidate.
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