2024 elections: ANC could lose its majority in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng
The ANC is set to lose its majority in both Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal in next year’s upcoming national and provincial elections, according to a new poll by the Brenthurst Foundation and strategy group SABI.
The poll indicates that the ruling party will get 43% of the vote nationally, if there is a high turnout, while the Democratic Alliance (DA) will get 25% and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) 16%.
In this scenario, the Multi Party Charter for South Africa (MPC), a coalition made up of the DA, the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) and other opposition parties, is expected to win 36% of the national vote.
The poll is based on a 15-minute telephone interview conducted with a sample of 1,500 registered voters between September 11 and October 3 of this year.
It reveals that in the event of low turnout, the ANC would obtain 45% of the vote nationally, the DA would obtain 27% and the MPC 37%.
Both scenarios show the ANC emerging as the largest party, but losing its national majority and needing the EFF, its current coalition partner at the local level, to form a cabinet.
In the key provinces of Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal, the poll also predicted serious losses for the ANC.
In Gauteng, 37% of respondents said they would vote for the ANC, the same number as those who said they would vote for the MPC parties, while 18% intend to vote for the EFF.
In KwaZulu-Natal, 32% indicated support for the ANC, compared to 27% for the IFP, 19% for the DA and 15% for the EFF.
Collectively, the MPC parties received 46% of the vote, which is still short of the magical 50% + 1 majority of votes needed to govern the province, in which the EFF appears to play an arbiter role in negotiations after next year’s elections.
In the Western Cape, the DA appeared to be able to maintain its majority without needing assistance, with 56% of the vote, compared to 22% for the ANC.
According to the poll, 80% of respondents intend to vote in the upcoming elections, and 83% of respondents cited crime, unemployment, power cuts and corruption as their main concerns.
President Cyril Ramaphosa enjoys the highest approval rating (42%), but has lost ground (six points) since the previous poll in November 2022, while that of EFF leader Julius Malema has increased by six points.
Ramaphosa’s party fared worse than him personally, with more people having a favorable view of the DA (37%) than the ruling party, seen positively by only 36% of those in the poll.
The DA’s favorability increased by seven points, while that of the ANC fell by three points, over the same period.
The EFF follows in the favorability rankings with 29% and the IFP with 18%.
Nearly three-quarters of those surveyed (74%) say they are ready to see South Africa governed by a coalition after the elections, however, this idea attracts fewer people than last November (79%).
A total of 56% of respondents believe the country could be effectively governed by a coalition, with 21% favoring an ANC-EFF coalition and the same number supporting the MPC, while 19% support a coalition between the ANC and the DA.
Half of those surveyed do not believe that parties with fundamentally different ideals can work together to govern.
Nearly half (48%) were aware of the MPC, and 24% said they were more likely to vote for one of the parties involved in it. Most respondents supported John Steenhuisen, the leader of the DA, as the MPC’s presidential candidate.
See the article here.