Title: “The option of ECOWAS military intervention in Niger suspended: troop-contributing countries are backtracking”
Introduction :
The option of military intervention by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in Niger following the recent coup d’état appears to be on hold. Several countries which had announced that they would make troops available to ECOWAS have now demobilized their troops, casting doubt on possible military action. In this article, we examine the reasons that led to this change of heart and the potential implications of this decision.
1. Nigeria backtracks:
The main contributor of troops to the planned military intervention in Niger, Nigeria, has made an about-face. Initially very angry with the perpetrators of the coup, President Bola Tinubu finally reduced his support for military action. Under pressure from religious leaders and perhaps realizing that the intervention was being rushed, the Nigerian president chose to backtrack. This decision had repercussions on other ECOWAS member countries, which also revised their position.
2. Consequences of sanctions:
Faced with Nigeria’s reluctance, the other troop-contributing countries also chose to procrastinate. Ivory Coast, Senegal and Ghana, which had initially planned to deploy their troops, are no longer on alert. The economic sanctions imposed on Niger by ECOWAS have been maintained, which could encourage the ruling junta to review its position. Nigeria is now counting on the consequences of these sanctions to bring the Niamey junta to its knees, rather than on military intervention.
3. A Nigerien file that has become secondary:
In the entourage of the Nigerian president, it is clear that the Niger issue is no longer the top priority. The political and social context in the country, as well as the internal problems facing Nigeria, surely played a role in this decision to withdraw. Other priorities seem to have taken over, relegating military intervention to the background.
Conclusion :
The plan for an ECOWAS military intervention in Niger following the coup appears to be on hold. The turnaround by Nigeria, the main troop contributor, led to the demobilization of troops from ECOWAS member countries. The consequences of economic sanctions and the other priorities of contributing countries seem to have supplanted the military option. It now remains to be seen how ECOWAS will officially announce this disengagement and what the next steps will be in the Niger issue.