Waiting for the tanks: Ukraine regains ground on the left bank of the Dnieper
In a surprising development, Ukraine has confirmed its retention on the left bank of the Dnieper River, an area until now under full Russian control. These military successes seem to open the way for a large-scale counter-offensive, with the ultimate objective of retaking Crimea.
Since mid-October, Ukrainian incursions on the left bank of the Dnieper occupied by Russia have increased. Ukrainian forces appear to have consolidated their positions in this strategic region, to the great astonishment of many observers.
The general staff of the Ukrainian army even publicly congratulated itself on the “successes” on the left bank of the river, an attitude very different from that adopted previously. While kyiv remained discreet about its attempted incursions into Russian-occupied territory, it now displays its progress with pride. A new attitude which underlines the positive development of the situation for Ukraine in this area.
Tensions are escalating in Russia, where “milbloggers”, these often ultranationalist military observers who comment on the conflict on social networks, now recognize Ukrainian advances. This recognition on social networks testifies to the reality on the ground and contradicts official Russian statements maintaining that all Ukrainian offensives have been stopped in this region.
This change in situation comes after almost a year of Ukrainian attempts to cross the Dnieper and test Russian defenses. Until recently, Ukrainian soldiers did not stay on the left bank of the river, due to high risks. However, since an attack last October on two towns southeast of Kherson, Ukraine has been working to set up winter quarters for a growing number of soldiers in the region. It even seems that she has managed to take control of several villages.
The left bank of the Dnieper thus becomes the extension of the counter-offensive initiated by Ukraine in June 2023. The main fighting is concentrated around the village of Krynky, where the Russians still hold their positions. However, Ukraine’s success lies in its ability to secure several crossing points over the river, thereby strengthening its positions and allowing troop rotations for greater combat effectiveness.
Securing the passage over the river represents a major challenge. Crossing waterways is a complex and dangerous military operation. Therefore, the Dnieper is a critical defensive asset for Russia in southern Ukraine.
Although Ukraine managed to overcome this obstacle, it does not yet have the heavy military equipment necessary for a large-scale offensive in the region. The current objective of the Ukrainian army is to push Russian artillery as far away from the river as possible, in order to put possible Ukrainian tanks out of range of Russian guns.
The situation on the left bank of the Dnieper therefore remains unstable. The Ukrainian troops present are numerous and driven to seize new territories. Additionally, Russian forces in the region appear to be less well trained and equipped than those in other regions. However, sending contingents of tanks or heavy artillery remains unthinkable as long as the area is not sufficiently secure.
The future of the region remains uncertain. Ukraine is attempting to free the road along the left bank of the Dnieper, hoping to push Russian artillery back far enough to allow reinforcements to be sent. However, a large-scale offensive cannot be launched without complete security in the region.
In the meantime, Ukraine continues to consolidate its positions and test Russia’s limits on the left bank of the Dnieper. The next developments will be decisive for the outcome of the conflict and the possibility of retaking Crimea.