Political instability in Guinea-Bissau: key factors to take into account
Since its independence fifty years ago, Guinea-Bissau has faced a series of coups and putsch attempts. This chronic political instability has deep roots, combining weak economic development and the legacy of the war of liberation. To understand this complex situation, we turn to Vincent Foucher, researcher at the CNRS, who analyzed the causes of this political instability.
One of the first factors to take into account is the weak economic development of Guinea-Bissau. This small, sparsely populated country has seen little investment, particularly during the colonial period. As a result, the private sector is extremely weak, leading to high dependence on the state. Within the political elite, the struggle for control of the state is intense, as it often represents the only path to success.
Furthermore, the experience of the war of liberation left profound after-effects in Guinean society. Indeed, Guinea-Bissau is the only country in West Africa to have obtained its independence after an armed struggle against Portugal. This military experience had the effect of legitimizing the intervention of the military in the political life of the country, thus creating a complex and unstable dynamic.
Another important element to take into account is the issue of drug trafficking, which has considerably amplified political instability in Guinea-Bissau. The country has become a hub for cocaine trafficking between Latin America and Europe, to the point of being considered a narco-state by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime.
However, it is necessary to qualify the link between drug trafficking and political instability. If Guinea-Bissau is often singled out because of the incessant struggles between political factions, we must not neglect the role of accusations of drug trafficking as a political instrument. Exacerbated political competitions lead to the use of the police and the judiciary to target certain rival factions, thus creating a vicious circle of instability and infighting.
Certainly, cocaine trafficking remains a reality in Guinea-Bissau, with the participation of certain segments of the political and security elite. However, it is important to emphasize that the situation is not unique to this country, but rather widespread across West Africa. In more politically stable countries, such as Guinea-Conakry, the discretion of state actors involved in trafficking is better preserved, thus explaining the relative absence of media cases.
In conclusion, political instability in Guinea-Bissau has its origins in a combination of factors, ranging from weak economic development to the legacy of the war of liberation and drug trafficking.. Understanding these complex dynamics and their interactions is essential to find lasting solutions to this recurring problem and enable Guinea-Bissau to progress towards stronger political and economic stability.