### Sudan from the South: crucial mediation through the eyes of history
On March 27, 2025, Kenya made a significant gesture by appointing the former political opponent, Raila Odonga, as a special envoy for South Sudan. This decision is not only in a context of palpable tensions in South Sudan, exacerbated by the arrest of Riek Machar, but it is also of historical importance to the light of regional political dynamics.
### The historical and geopolitical context
To understand the scope of this initiative, it is imperative to return to the 2018 peace agreement, which ended several years of civil conflict in South Sudan. The importance of this agreement is not only political, but it is also societal and economic. Indeed, the civil war has made millions of internal displaced and refugees, resulting in a humanitarian crisis that the international community continues to curb. The appointment of Odinga intervenes in a context where regional leaders, including Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, collaborated to advance this mediation mission.
#### A last chance mission?
The mission entrusted to Raila Odonga goes far beyond simple diplomacy. William Ruto, President Kenyan, stressed the need to initiate constructive discussions to mitigate tension, but this is also accompanied by a moral imperative: reducing human sufferings. The role of Odonga is to forge a dialogue not only between the South Sudanese stakeholders but also between several regional actors, seeking to establish political normality.
That said, the historical criteria for the success of such mediation efforts are complex. According to a study by the United Nations, half of the peace agreements suffer from fragility after their initial implementation. Consequently, although Odanga’s mission seems promising diplomatic, it is crucial to take into account the previous failures and the risks of a resurgence of conflicts.
### The impact of civil society and regional actors
Social movements and civil society play an essential role in the search for lasting peace. The current dynamics in South Sudan calls for a mobilization not only of political elites but also basic groups which require changes. In addition, the support of regional organizations like IGAD is not limited to mediation, but also includes efforts of education and awareness for a critical look at conflicts.
A World Bank report reveals that countries with a strong integration of civil society in peace negotiations show increased success rates in long -term peacekeeping. It therefore appears necessary that Rila Odonga’s efforts also include the voice of youth, women and other marginalized groups, in order to love a holistic dialogue.
### International implications
Beyond the borders of South Sudan, the international community also observes these developments with increased attention. The political fate of this young country is not only a subject of humanitarian concern, but also a strategic issue for several major powers. Prolonged destabilization in this region could have cascading consequences, affecting security in neighboring countries such as Kenya, Uganda and Ethiopia, each with vital interests to protect.
The appointment of Odonga could thus be perceived as a pivot to strengthen the links between the nations of the region by a collaborative approach, rather than by confrontation. The support of international organizations, such as the African Union and the UN, will be essential to credibility the action undertaken through mediation.
#### In conclusion
While Raila Odonga begins her mission to Juba, the path to lasting peace seems sown with pitfalls, but he also represents an opportunity to reassess regional dynamisms. South Sudan is not just a simple point of friction; It is a reflection of a collective quest for peace in a region that aspires more than ever to stability. If regional and international actors unite their efforts to stimulate an inclusive approach, perhaps a serene future for South Sudan could become a reality, thus avoiding a new human tragedy.
In the coming days, attention will therefore be paid not only to the actions of Raila Odonga, but also to the way in which popular will and regional mediation efforts will be able to promote a climate conducive to peace. The interconnection of the challenges of security, development and social harmony deserves to be scrutinized with care and commitment, because the fate of Sudan in the South East, ultimately, a mirror of the hopes and challenges of an entire region.