What Israel strategy could it adopt in the face of the geopolitical redefinition of Syria?

### Syria at a crossroads: opportunities and geopolitical risks

The eviction of Bashar al-Assad, due to the rise of Islamist forces, awakens strategic ambitions in Israel, but raises crucial questions about the future of Syria and the Middle East. Beyond the rivalries between powers, the ethnic and religious diversity of the country can be an asset to build peaceful coexistence, provided that they do not give in to the temptations of fragmentation. 

The growing militarization of the Syrian national identity, accentuated by Israeli strikes, fuels a cycle of violence harming to any prospect of national reconstruction. The risks of regional instability are palpable, exacerbated by selective support from Israel to certain factions, which could lead to a new exodus of refugees to neighboring countries.

However, this crisis can also pave the way for a new diplomatic approach, based on dialogue and cooperation. A more peaceful alignment of relations could transform current tensions into opportunities for reconciliation and prosperity. Instead of seeing the situation in Syria as an opportunity for expansion, it is crucial to make it a real catalyst to promote lasting peace in the Middle East, by restoring the links between communities and by building a better future for everyone.
### Geopolitical transformations into Syria: towards a reconfiguration of the Middle East?

The recent evacuation of Bashar al-Assad from power in Syria, orchestrated by Islamist forces, has certainly fueled Israeli discourse on strategic opportunities, but it also raises questions about the future of the region. Indeed, if the use of proactive rhetoric by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seems attractive, it would be dangerous to reduce Syrian dynamics to a simple opportunity to strengthen Israeli control.

#### A reflection on ethnic and religious diversity in Syria

The history of a country is not limited to its borders. Syria, with its mosaic of ethnic and religious groups, is at the heart of a geopolitical chess game. The reality is that the potential dismantling of Syria in autonomous entities, often mentioned by Israeli leaders, transforms a crisis of sovereignty into an opportunity for manipulation. Controlling regions inhabited by minorities such as druze or kurds might seem advantageous, but that ignores the human and social costs of such fragmentation.

In addition, a study by the Institute of Strategic Research in 2022 has shown that 60 % of Syrians living outside the big cities express a desire for peaceful coexistence between ethnoreligious groups. This integration spray is undermined by Israeli strategies, which favor support for various factions to the detriment of a national unit necessary for the reconstruction of the country.

### Militarization of national identity

Recent events in Syria, including Israeli strikes, feed a cycle of violence that only exacerbates the militarization of Syrian national identity. The new head of state, Ahmed Al-Sharaa, who proposed a more moderate image, is actually faced with considerable internal challenges. The militarization of Syrian society is particularly marked, as illustrated by the alarming percentage of young Syrians recruited by Islamist groups, which has climbed almost 25 % since the start of the conflict.

This climate of militarization is exacerbated by the extreme actions of a state like Israel, which, by its interventions, strengthens nationalist narrations among the Syro-Arab. Israeli bombings are not only talking about a strategic chessboard, but a discourse that more polarizes identities, so as to feed resentment and long -term violence.

#### Implications for regional stability

Israel’s ambitions for exploded Syria, steeped in ethnic and religious divisions are a short -term geopolitical analysis, but do not take into account the risks of regional regional collapse. Israeli support to specific groups could create an unstable chessboard, fueling tensions not only in Syria, but potentially extending to Lebanon, Jordan, and even Turkey which has its own Kurdish minorities to manage.

Researchers in international relations note that instability in Syria could encourage refugee movements similar to those occurring during the Syrian civil war, with millions of people probably suppressed by local soldiers or extremist factions. The economic and social misery caused by the conflict could force neighboring governments to intervene, which would only worsen regional tensions.

#### An opportunity for diplomatic realignment

The transformation of Syria could also be perceived as an opportunity for a new diplomatic approach – a vision where regional cooperation takes precedence over confrontation. For example, post-conflict reconstruction initiatives, focused on inter-community dialogue, could offer a viable alternative to fragmentation encouraged by militarization and external interventionism.

Such a scenario would not only require reinventing the dynamics between Israel and its neighbors, but also to open the way to broader cooperation, involving actors like Iran, Russia, and even the United States, which have often been in opposition.

### Conclusion

It is essential to go beyond the Manichean vision of Israeli actions in Syria, to recognize complexities and to reflect on the long -term implications of these policies. By promoting a resetting of interethnic relationships and by adopting a humanitarian perspective and cooperation, it is possible to imagine a Middle East where peace and prosperity are not only ideals, but tangible realities. The dynamics in Syria should not transform into an pretext for an expansionist ambition, but rather into a catalyst to encourage dialogue between peoples and build a more harmonious future.

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