**Title: Samia Suluhu Hassan: Between Continuity and Protest as Tanzanian Elections Approach**
The Tanzanian political landscape is buzzing with excitement ahead of the general elections scheduled for October 2024. The ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party recently nominated Samia Suluhu Hassan as its candidate for succession. The event, which saw the party’s unanimous support, highlights a political figure who is operating in an environment fraught with tensions, both internal and external.
Under President Hassan, who took office after the sudden death of John Magufuli, Tanzania has witnessed a period of promise for reform and democratic renewal. Upon her inauguration, she showed signs of openness by allowing the return of previously banned media outlets, marking a break with the repressive era of her predecessor. Yet criticism is mounting from the opposition, pointing to a drift towards authoritarian practices reminiscent of Magufuli’s methods, such as arrests and the disappearance of dissenting voices.
The CCM, for its part, seems to be banking on continuity without any real internal opposition. Party members, who have clearly expressed the lack of alternative candidates to Ms. Hassan, seem to prefer the assurance of an already established leader, even at the risk of closing the door to new or divergent voices. This choice may seem pragmatic, especially in a context where public opinion is changing rapidly, but it raises questions about the crisis of democracy in Tanzania and the future of an electoral system that is still highly contested.
In this regard, it is worth looking at the dynamics of the opposition in the run-up to the elections. While the main opposition party, Chadema, awaits an internal process to select its new president, the Alliance for Change and Transparency (ACT Wazalendo) party has already announced its intention to compete with Hassan. This scenario of political competition could lead to a more polarized electoral climate if decent measures are not put in place to ensure free and fair elections.
A key point to highlight is the persistent problem of electoral reforms in Tanzania. Chadema has already expressed its concern about this, even threatening to “block” the 2025 elections if meaningful measures are not taken by then. The CCM’s neglect of demands for electoral reforms could, in time, inflame tensions and lead to popular protests, as has been observed in other countries in the region facing authoritarian governments.
From a statistical perspective, it is interesting to note that membership and popular support for the CCM has significantly decreased compared to previous elections. In 2020, the party won a majority of the vote, but surveys show that feelings of disillusionment with the ruling party have intensified in some key opposition regions. This shift could influence the outcome of the upcoming elections, adding a layer of uncertainty.
Internationally, the observer community is equally alert, concerned about the direction Tanzania is taking. With an economy hit by multiple crises and sometimes strained relations with neighboring countries, allegations of electoral manipulation by the CCM could also affect the country’s international image. External support, particularly from development agencies and non-governmental organizations, could be conditional on the implementation of promised democratic reforms as Tanzania seeks to position itself as a leader in the Great Lakes region.
In conclusion, Samia Suluhu Hassan’s journey as she prepares to run for re-election in 2024 is not just one of promise and strategic positioning. It is also a picture of protest, crisis of democracy, and governance issues. With an electoral climate already fraught with tension, Hassan’s real challenge will be to overcome the legacy of her predecessor and respond to the democratic aspirations of a people who want to be heard beyond the ballot box. Tanzania, at a crossroads, could decide to reaffirm its commitment to democratic governance, or sink deeper into authoritarianism, a choice that will have lasting repercussions on its political and social trajectory.