The dramatic rise in cocoa prices in recent weeks continues to attract the attention of market players. For the past month and a half, cocoa prices have been soaring, raising many questions about their impact on the global economy and consumers. This upward trend is mainly fueled by concerns about cocoa production in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, the world’s two largest cocoa producers.
Despite favorable forecasts for the current harvest, which is expected to be better than last year, concerns persist about the ability of both countries to meet growing demand. Indeed, last year’s harvest had recorded a significant decline, which created tensions on global cocoa markets. The current situation reflects real market stress, with prices increasing rapidly since the beginning of November.
A key indicator for assessing the cocoa harvest is the volume of beans arriving at the ports of Abidjan and San Pedro in Côte d’Ivoire. Although this volume is up compared to last year, it is still 10% lower than two years ago. This slight shortfall in supply is enough to fuel the fears of operators in the sector. In addition, part of the current harvest will also be used to honor contracts not honored from the previous year, thus increasing the pressure on the available supply.
The fundamental question that arises is whether the current harvest will be able to make up for the past deficit and meet current market needs. Current cocoa prices mainly reflect this uncertainty about future supply, especially as global stocks are gradually decreasing. These stocks, whether stored in producing countries or in transit in international ports, are essential to regulate supply and demand.
In conclusion, the surge in cocoa prices is the result of a combination of economic and logistical factors that highlight the fragility of the global cocoa market. The coming months will be critical to determine whether producing countries can meet growing demand and stabilize cocoa prices. Increased vigilance is needed to ensure adequate supplies and prevent an uncontrolled escalation of prices that could impact the entire supply chain.