In the northern foothills of Syria, the situation is becoming increasingly dire as clashes between Kurdish groups and Turkish-backed factions have threatened a key dam, the Tishreen Dam, raising concerns about the Islamic State’s ability to exploit the deteriorating security situation.
While much of central and southern Syria appears calm following the fall of the Assad regime to opposition forces, a series of territorial rivalries in the north have erupted into open fighting, raising concerns that the Islamic State could take advantage of the growing insecurity.
Most of the fighting has been between Kurdish groups under the banner of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and pro-Turkish factions of the Free Syrian Army (FSA), part of the broader coalition that toppled Bashar al-Assad.
Despite the announcement of a four-day ceasefire in the city of Manbij last Thursday, fighting continued south of the city, particularly around the Tishreen Dam, despite the truce stipulating the withdrawal of both sides from the area.
The SDF said on Friday that after three days of fighting around the dam and a major bridge across the Euphrates, its forces had repelled “mercenary attacks.” It claimed to have killed more than 200 enemy fighters while suffering only eight casualties.
However, a video emerged on Friday showing fighters from a Turkish-backed group controlling the bridge over the dam.
Fatshimetrie could not verify the number of casualties or the situation of the front lines near the dam.
Some experts are concerned that the fighting over the dam could cause flooding in more than 40 villages downstream. The UN has warned of a threat to the structural integrity of the dam.
Yasumasa Kimura, the UN Children’s Fund’s representative in Syria, told Fatshimetrie that a nearby water treatment plant was without power, leading to a “complete shutdown of water supplies” for more than three million people in the Aleppo region.
Further south, in the SDF-controlled city of Raqqa, clashes broke out on Thursday after hundreds of people took to the streets to celebrate the fall of the Assad regime. One person was killed and 15 others injured in the gunfire and panic that followed, according to a local journalist and witnesses.
Some Raqqa residents have called on the SDF to hand over control of the city to the FSA. The majority of Raqqa’s population is Arab, with Kurds representing the minority.
No other incidents were reported in Raqqa on Friday.
The SDF has been a U.S. ally since 2017 in the fight against ISIS, the terrorist group that once held much of northern Syria. However, the Turkish government has long considered Syrian Kurdish groups to be part of the PKK, a Kurdish militant group that has carried out numerous attacks in Turkey over the past three decades.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken traveled to Ankara on Friday to meet with his Turkish counterpart, Hakan Fidan, to discuss the situation in Syria and the risk that renewed conflict in the north could allow ISIS to return to the forefront.
The SDF and other Kurdish elements have controlled several enclaves in northern Syria since the collapse of regime control in the north when ISIS was at its peak in 2015. In the northeast of the country, near the Iraqi border, the SDF runs a large detention camp in Al Hol for relatives of ISIS fighters, as well as other facilities where ISIS suspects are held.
Blinken acknowledged this role, saying the SDF was “critical in guarding the detention centers where thousands of foreign terrorist fighters have been held for years, preventing them from returning to the battlefield.”
Analysts say the sectarian conflict in the north will be difficult to contain, with Armed Conflict Location & Event Data indicating that the fighting reflects a “broader struggle for territorial control and political dominance in northern Syria.”
He added that ISIS “is poised to exploit the resulting security vacuum, potentially turning the central desert into a hotbed of conflict.”
Jennifer Hansler contributed reporting from Ankara. Nechirvan Mando also contributed reporting.