Niger holds its breath as ECOWAS ultimatum to military junta expires. For the past week, discussions have been intense with the aim of restoring constitutional order and seeing President Bazoum return to power. ECOWAS is even considering a military intervention to force the hand of the military in power. However, the negotiations are deadlocked and the situation remains tense.
ECOWAS sent a delegation to Niamey to try to meet General Tchiani, head of the junta, and President Bazoum. Unfortunately, these meetings did not take place, plunging the discussions into uncertainty. Meanwhile, the chiefs of staff of ECOWAS member countries held meetings in Abuja to prepare for a possible military intervention. Several countries, including Nigeria, Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal, have declared their readiness to send troops to Niger.
However, the situation is complex because the putschist soldiers of Mali and Burkina Faso support the Nigerien junta and consider any military intervention as a declaration of war against them. Moreover, Chad and Algeria refuse to get involved militarily and prefer to favor dialogue with the junta. The pressures on the president of Nigeria, who could play a major role in a regional intervention, are strong. Some Nigerian political and social actors call for favoring diplomacy and dialogue rather than engaging in a war with Niger.
The consequences of a military intervention in Niger are worrying. The border regions between Niger and Nigeria are closely linked commercially, socially and culturally. A military operation could have a significant economic and humanitarian impact. Additionally, the effort to fight Boko Haram in northeast Nigeria could be compromised if Nigerian troops are deployed in Niger.
Finally, the issue of refugees is also of concern. More than 200,000 Nigerians fled jihadist violence in their country and settled in Niger. A military intervention could lead to a massive influx of refugees into Nigeria, creating an additional humanitarian crisis.
As the ECOWAS ultimatum comes to an end, the situation in Niger remains uncertain. Diplomatic negotiations are deadlocked and military intervention seems increasingly likely. The consequences of this intervention would be serious, both regionally and in humanitarian terms. It remains to be hoped that peaceful solutions can be found to resolve this crisis and restore stability in the country.