Six months after the start of the conflict between Israel and Hamas, President Joe Biden finds himself increasingly caught in an international crisis that he cannot control, but which has profound consequences on American domestic politics and weighs heavily on his candidacy for re-election.
The geopolitical relevance of the war was highlighted this weekend with US officials warning of a potential retaliatory attack in the region by Iran after an Israeli strike on the US embassy complex. Iran to Damascus. Israel also vowed to escalate on the northern border with Lebanon, while continuing operations in Gaza to eliminate Hamas, the Tehran-backed group that has killed more than 1,200 Israelis and taken more than 200 hostages in its attacks unprecedented in October. Talks are due to resume in Cairo this week amid growing international discontent over the human consequences of the war, which has left more than 30,000 Palestinians dead.
US forces in the region as well as Israel were on high alert in anticipation of potential attacks by Iran in retaliation for the assassination of two senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officials in Damascus last week , a strike that the United States attributes to Israel. Any Iranian action against Israel or US interests could trigger the full-scale war in the Middle East that the White House fears. Even if Iran does not retaliate, low-level clashes are already brewing across the region. The United States has hit Iranian clients in Yemen, the Red Sea, Syria and Iraq, while Israel’s northern border, where it regularly exchanges missile fire with Hezbollah forces in Lebanon, is becoming increasingly more dangerous. Israel is confronted, as its former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett told CNN on Sunday, with an Iranian “octopus of terror”.
In another example of drama that any president would prefer to avoid in an election year, Biden is engaged in a standoff with an Israeli prime minister. Benjamin Netanyahu finally bowed to the president’s pressure after a crucial phone call last week to open new avenues of aid to Gaza. Israel also announced on Sunday that it was withdrawing from the Khan Younis region of Gaza, leaving behind a landscape of lunar destruction. The actions followed a wave of international anger after the killings last week of seven aid workers, a Palestinian and six foreigners, including an American.. But Netanyahu’s past resistance to scaling back Israeli operations despite Biden’s repeated calls means the administration has signaled it could change its own Gaza policy depending on the number of Palestinian civilians killed in the coming weeks.
The horrific humanitarian crisis, fueling criticism of both Israel and Biden, is reaching a point of no return. World Food Program Director Cindy McCain said on CNN’s “State of the Union” Sunday that children are dying “right now” and that even if massive aid is delivered to Gaza, many will suffer medical aftereffects. All their life. “We are literally on the brink, the abyss, with famine and the inability to recover from it,” McCain said, adding that the WFP had assembled food for 1.1 million people just in the Gaza border. “We just have to get him in,” McCain told CNN’s Jake Tapper. “That’s why these passages are so important, and more passages are needed.”
Domestically, Biden faces a strong backlash from progressive, young and Arab-American voters, who could jeopardize his chances of re-election in several key states. Activists’ regular interruptions and protests at his campaign events offer a taste of the disruptions that could cause a disastrous prime-time distraction for the president at the Democratic National Convention if the conflict still rages in August. The White House’s efforts to smooth over the problems last week only highlighted them when a Palestinian-American doctor walked out of a meeting with Biden meant to celebrate Ramadan.
Now Biden, who is instinctively one of the most pro-Israel presidents of the modern era, faces growing political pressure from elected Democrats, including some of his closest allies, to do more to contain the Israelis by raising the possibility of conditions for billions of dollars in American arms shipments. Meanwhile, Republicans reacted vehemently to the president’s pressure on Netanyahu during their phone call last week, accusing Biden of abandoning one of America’s closest friends. And former President Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, will be sure to highlight any worsening of the war to reinforce his narrative that things are getting confusing under his successor’s presidency and that only he can prevent the Third World War.
Biden’s call to Netanyahu last Thursday was the most significant moment so far in the president’s evolving handling of the war. Previously, he had repeatedly criticized Israel’s tactics in Gaza and called on the country to protect civilians, but he had been reluctant to reveal consequences for Netanyahu’s refusal to limit his operations.
This situation highlights the complexity of international issues and the fragility of geopolitical relations in the Middle East. As the humanitarian crisis deepens and regional tensions escalate, it is crucial for world leaders to work together to find peaceful and lasting solutions.